Knocked Up: The Director of the 40 Year Old Virgin (Judd Apatow) + Great Buzz + Strong studio support + High powered marketing - No big name stars + No other comedies in the market = A good open, good legs, over $90 million domestic.
Gracie: Sports movie - No stars - No buzz + Good trailer + Low budget + Strong international appeal of soccer = Overall profitability but a quick trip to the scrap heap domestically.
Mr. Brooks: Kevin Costner comeback + Good early buzz + Older demographic appeal - Complicated plot - Serious marketing challenge = A mediocre opening weekend and a long life on DVD.
Hostel 2: Sequel + Cult following - Highly competitive weekend + Only horror in the market = Diminishing returns for a supposed franchiser thanks to a poor choice of opening weekend.
Oceans 13: Clooney + Pitt + Damon + Popular film series + First PG-13 new release in the market in month of June = Bigger than expected returns for the further adventures of Danny Ocean and crew.
Surf’s Up: Penguins + CGI + Happy Feet + March of the Penguins + two weeks after Pirates have sailed = The penguin extends it’s species 15 minutes of fame as a America’s favorite cute animal
Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer: Sequel - Original stunk + Jessica Alba + Silver Surfer - Weak trailers + Strong studio support = Prospects may be improving for this troubled franchise unless the movie stinks as bad as the original.
I Could Never Be Your Woman: Michele Pfeiffer comeback - ZERO Buzz + Director of Clueless (Amy Heckerling) - Director hasn’t had a hit since Clueless - Paul Rudd leading man + Only adult romance in the market - Less than a month till opening and no trailer = Why is this movie being released wide in the Summer? Why is it being released wide at all? This one is dead on arrival.
Nancy Drew - Rising young star (Emma Roberts, Julia’s niece) + Popular book series + Good trailer - Live action family movie = Chance of a break out success but live action family films have struggled against animated films with more obvious kid appeal.
1408 - John Cusack + Samuel L. Jackson + Stephen King + Good buzz - Poor release date - Bad title = Rough going opposite a pair of younger skewing openers and King adaptations haven’t exactly been great at the box office; see Dreamcatcher.
Captivity: High profile controversy + Rising star (Elisha Cuthbert) - Backlash - Hostel 2 - Bad release date = Expect a weak opening thanks to heavy competition and a controvery driven marketing campaign that peaked to soon.
Dead Or Alive: Videogame movie - Awful buzz -Star Jamie Pressley crushing the movie in interviews - No star power - Already DOA Internationally = Dead On Arrival.
Evan Almighty: Massive budget - Bad buzz + Popular star (Steve Carell) + Sequel to the most profitable comedy ever made - No Jim Carrey + Morgan Freeman is back + No opening weekend competition = Should open well but buzz will likely crush it quickly unless director Tom Shadyac has something big up his sleeve that hasn’t been in the lackluster trailers.
September Dawn: What? - Who? - Why? = Box Office Mojo claims this one is opening wide across the country otherwise I would mention it.
You Kill Me: Great buzz + Great trailer - Ben Kingsley, leading man? + Luke Wilson = Like September Dawn, I wouldn’t mention it but for the fact that it may be opening on more than 1,000 screens. With a low budget and a platform release it could be buzzworthy but opening wide it will be chewed up and spat out by the summer blockbusters.
Live Free Or Die Hard: Bruce Willis + John McClain + Amazing Internet Buzz + Wednesday opening = The surprise blockbuster of the summer, if the internet is serious and not merely ironic about their buzz on this one we could be looking at a serious blockbuster of the $200+ million dollar variety.
Ratatouille: Disney + Pixar - Rats - French = Pixar’s first real marketing challenge, a rat against Penguins will lose every time. Will still open well but this one could be the first time Pixar comes in under 100 million.
Sicko: Michael Moore + Controversy - Tough subject (Health care) + George W. Bush + Protestors = Another success for Moore thanks to an unpopular president and angry protestors willing to do all of Moore’s marketing for him with their withering cries.
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