The Blog at Guess The Gross

TICKETS OUT: AUDIENCES CAN'T WAIT TO TASTE RATATOUILLE

Bruce Willis, rats. and Michael Moore dominate the box office this weekend as four new releases attack the box office this weekend.

Live Free or Die Hard opened to a modest $8 million Wednesday, which puts the opening weekend somewhere in the $45 to $50 million range for the five-day weekend. With Ratatouille and Sicko entering the market on Friday, that number could take a hit but all in all, Live Free or Die Hard is not a complete disappointment.

The movie of the weekend is Ratatouille which is looking like yet another blockbuster for the Disney/Pixar team. The film is tracking at levels just short of the Pirates, Spider-Man, Shrek atmosphere and will likely pull in between $60 and $70 million over the three-day weekend, although it would not be surprising of those estimates ended up being on the low end.

And then there is Michael Moore, whose Sicko looks to open just below the range of his Fahrenheit 9/11 which is the highest-grossing documentary in history. The ad campaign from the Weinstein Company and Lionsgate has been low-watt classy, appealing to the same older, liberal crowds that were Moore’s main constituency before Fahrenheit which succeeded by pulling surprising numbers of younger moviegoers, the 18-24’s.

Sicko does not look to have that same hook for the younger crowds. This being a non-election, the film opening to far less controversy to Fahrenheit did and with a much more complicated and less appealing subject, health care. The film still benefits from the profile Moore established with Fahrenheit, but don’t count on Sicko doing the kind of blockbuster numbers that Fahrenheit did. (Editor’s Note: Sicko is only opening on 441 screens, as opposed to Fahrenheit 9/11, which opened on 868 screens in its first weekend of release.)

Something in the range of 10 to 12 million would be a high end expectation and a clear success for Sicko.

Oh, by the way, there is one more movie opening this weekend. Evening stars Meryl Streep, Toni Collette, and Claire Danes in a blue plate special chick flick for older audiences. Though I find the marketing to be classy and the stars appealing, this film will go down in flames this weekend.

Is there a market of underserved oldsters seeking an inoffensive alternative to the bombast of summer movies? Yes, but Evening is not going to serve them, not without the critical support that is crucial to turning out the older crowd, the last crowd that still listens to us critics.

There was some hope I thought, for Evening. The film has a well pedigreed cast and the look and feel of a Nicholas Sparks-style romance. Had the film opened in September and kept the younger stars, Danes and handsome co-star Patrick Wilson, out front and drawn parallels with the teen friendly romance The Notebook, the film could have possibly reached out to teenage girls.

As it is, with the older crowd being marketed to and reviews not panning out as the producers I’m sure had hoped, the high end for Evening is maybe 7 million for the weekend but don’t be surprised if the number is someplace closer 3.5 or 4 million. Ouch.

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NEXT WEEK'S CONTEST: TRANSFORMERS

As the release date for Transformers keeps slipping, we here at Guess the Gross have been trying to figure out when to close next week’s contest.

Now that the film will open officially on Monday night (with some 8:00 p.m. showings) and opening wide in most places on Tuesday, the obvious answer would be to open the contest at midnight Monday and close it on Tuesday night. Unfortunately, the great Guess the Gross back end does not allow me to close contests on Tuesday.

After much deliberation -- deliberation which included guessing License to Wed, which opens on Wednesday and checking to see if there are any major releases opening Friday, July 6 (there aren’t) -- I’ve decided that the contest will close at the earliest possible time -- 5:00 p.m. Wednesday.

While I realize that people will likely be able to guess more effectively, since they’ll have Tuesday’s grosses by the time they have to make their pick, I also suspect that, since many major media outlets (like Entertainment Weekly) are still saying that the film will open on Wednesday, the early grosses won’t reflect the film’s full weekend take.

Obviously, there’s the chance that people will realize that the film opens Tuesday and will swamp Tuesday night shows after leaving work for the holiday. Unfortunately, my options are limited technologically. Accordingly, we’ll leave the guessing open until 5:00 p.m. July 4.

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ROLLING THE DICE: THE JOHN MCCLANE EDITION

Welcome to a special mid-week edition of Tickets Out. While my esteemed colleague Kernan will preview the weekend’s new releases later this week, one movie is opening on Wednesday and it merits a special column: Live Free or Die Hard.

The fourth edition in the Die Hard cannon rides a wave of anticipation from fans of the series and to get those fans even more juiced up, I present to you Guyz Nite’s video for their track, "Die Hard."

(Additional analysis after the video.)

For those film fans of a certain age (that is, 33+), John McClane was up there in the action hero pantheon with Rambo, Indiana Jones, and pretty much any character Arnold Schwarzenegger portrayed (save for Detective John Kimble in Kindergarten Cop) and there are many who will argue that the Die Hard trilogy was among the best action series’ of the late 1980s-early 1990s. John McClane was badass, but he was also human. When you cut him, he bled.

And while final film in the trilogy, Die Hard With a Vengeance, was nowhere near as good as its predecessors, it had its moments. But that was 12 years ago. That was before the Internet and before widespread CGI. That was when the majority of stunts were performed in real locations, not in front of blue or green screens. That was also before the R-rating became an object of terror for studios who now believe that any film that does not go out with a PG-13 rating is guaranteed to be leaving money on the table at best and fail at worst.

Now we have Live Free or Die Hard (known overseas as Die Hard 4.0), which hits U.S. screens with a PG-13 rating and therefore has, prior to its release, angered many of the fans who supported the first three films. There is a great fear that the PG-13 tag proves that the latest Die Hard installment will have no chance of being as good as the first two were. This fear raises the biggest question mark regarding how successfully the film will open this weekend.

Another question about the film’s success comes from the fact that the core action audience, the 18-30 year old market, likely never saw the first or second Die Hard films in the theatre. One suspects that this will not be as big a problem as expected since the films have been repeated so many times on television over the years, it is the rare movie fan who has not seen them.

Bruce Willis claims that only the language is tuned down (which means that his signature Yippee Ki Ay, Motherfucker) line gets truncated and that the action is ratcheted up because he insisted on doing live stunts (most of them by himself) and using as little CGI as possible. Should this be proven to be the case, one suspects that the film will build throughout the weekend as word of mouth spreads the positivity.

The early reviews claim that the film starts off with a bang (several of them in fact) and ends with a tremendous finale, but falters in the middle. Still, for many, this film is critic-proof and I suspect that it will take in between $45 and $50 million in its first five days of release. The other films opening this weekend -- about which Kernan will write more later -- should not compete for the same demographic audience.

John McClane is back. Just writing those words makes me smile.

Technorati Tags: Film, News, The Wrap, Weekly Contest, Die Hard, McClane

THE WRAP: NOT EVEN GOD ALMIGHTY CAN SAVE EVAN

Evan Almighty was unable to withstand the flood of bad reviews and the film debuted at No. 1 in North America to a lower-than-anticipated $32.112 million over its first three days of release. The film, which is the highest-budgeted comedy of all time (between $175 and $225 million depending on which source you believe), will struggle to reach $100 million domestically. The hoped-for support from the religious community appeared not to have materialized. The film debuted to a $8,910 per screen average; however, with next week’s debut of Ratatouille, the family audience will likely flock to Pixar’s latest, leaving Evan Almighty high and dry.

1408 debuted impressively at No. 2, grossing $20.175 million this weekend. With a $25 million budget, the Stephen King work will make a nice profit for MGM and the Weinstein Company.

Last week’s top film, Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer saw its weekend-to-weekend gross drop 65.3% in its second frame to $20.15 million. The $130 million film has now taken in $97.604 million in its first 10 days of release.

Ocean’s Thirteen follows at No. 4 after grossing $11.345 million in its third weekend of release. It has now taken in $91.013 million. Rounding out the top five is Knocked Up, which grossed $10.636 million and has captured an impressive $108.892 million in its first month of release.

A Mighty Heart is the only other new film to debut in the top 10 this week. The well-reviewed biopic took in a weak $2,956 per screen and a total of $4.006 million this weekend and did not prove to work as counter-programming for serious audiences. The film would have been better off being held until fall (and don’t be surprised if it gets a theatrical re-release later this year if Angelina Jolie gets an Oscar nomination or other awards considerations.)

In limited release, You Kill Me grossed $247,000 on 35 screens for a $7,057 per screen average. Broken English took in $56,000 on 7 screens for an $8,000 per screen average.

The anticipation for the June 29 release of Michael Moore’s latest, Sicko, is clear. The film opened on one screen in New York and took home a remarkable $70,000. Essentially, this means that every ticket for every show sold out this weekend. Expect a big profit for Lionsgate for the film, which reportedly cost approximately $9 million to make.

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TICKETS OUT: WILL EVAN SURVIVE FLOOD OF NEW RELEASES?

Evan Almighty presents a number of interesting storylines as it sails into theaters this weekend.

Praise be to the Universal marketing team. They have managed to turn the story of Evan Almighty from the massive budget overruns that have made it the most expensive comedy in history and turned the discussion to the film’s perspective on religion. Given the long lead stories had focused heavily on the film’s ballooning budget, it must be seen as a miracle that in the week leading up to the film’s release none of the major mags or newspapers is talking about the budget.

As for the religious questions, this is not exactly the safest topic but it’s a better, more manageable storyline than the $200+ million dollar budget. The religion of Evan Almighty is looking like both a blessing and a curse. Universal marketers, in an article in the L.A Times this week, are excited about using the films piety and family friendly PG rating to sell the film to the Passion of the Christ crowd.

However, marketers may be fighting the Evan creative team over this religious marketing. In interviews over the weekend and appearances on both Comedy Central and on the USA Network, where he hosted a showing of Bruce Almighty, star Steve Carell attempted to downplay the film’s religious aspects. Meanwhile, director Tom Shadyac acknowledges the film’s religious aspects but prefers to discuss the film’s environmental message.

Suddenly, marketers have a red state-blue state confrontation on their hands.

The biggest religious obstacle in Evan Almighty is the storyline of the film itself. Carell plays Evan Baxter, a secondary character from Bruce Almighty, who goes from news anchor to Congressman and finds himself tapped by God, played once again by Morgan Freeman, to build an ark ala Noah.

God is going to flood the world again and the question the film must answer is why and just how can a comedy sidestep the drowning deaths of millions of sinners. Now, no one expects a mainstream, big budget comedy to kill millions of sinners. There will no doubt be some kind of trapdoor that will save humanity from the flood. But if that is the case, how do you deal with trailers that give away the flood with waters raging toward Washington D.C?

Maybe that curious question alone will be enough to drive some business for Evan Almighty.

Aside from the budget issues and the religious questions, there are still more storylines. Can the film reach the same audience that made Bruce Almighty the top grossing comedy of all time? Can Steve Carell prove himself as a leading man and a box office draw? And can the film overcome some early bad reviews to reach the widest audience available?

At this point, tracking numbers say no. Evan Almighty has strong awareness but its first choice numbers, that is the percentage of people who are aware of the picture who will see it ahead all other films in the market, is stunningly low. The number is so low that Universal is bracing for numbers around $25 million over the opening weekend. For a film that cost more than $200 million dollars to make and market, a $25 million dollar opening could be deathly.

With the specter of Pixar’s highly anticipated Ratatouille just a week away and aimed right at the same audience as Evan, the same mainstream audience, that Passion crowd is a niche, Evan needs to make bank this weekend because next weekend will be big trouble.

One of the films really stealing Evan Almighty’s thunder this weekend is the new Stephen King-based thriller 1408. The John Cusack-Samuel L. Jackson thriller is a buzz monster that has excited potential moviegoers. The film’s awareness is not as high as that of Evan Almighty but first choice numbers and definite interest numbers are surpassing the big budget comedy release.

Of course, 1408 being R-rated means it’s chasing a much different audience than Evan; but I’m sure Universal would prefer not to have such a buzzy flick stealing so much of its weekend spotlight. Both films are chasing one similar audience. Evan has attempted to straddle all quadrants including 18-24 men and women. That audience however is leaning more toward 1408 and that could hurt Evan which is facing a perception problem, is it a kiddie flick or just a funny comedy.

Critics are very much on the side of 1408 with a 100% rating as late as Wednesday night and the likelihood of surpassing Knocked Up as the best reviewed wide release of the year. This will likely help the film pull older audiences, the last group in America who still base their moviegoing on what critics say.

The final new release of the weekend is also chasing that older crowd. Angelina Jolie’s passion project A Mighty Heart is relying on critics to help spread the word of mouth. The film is an indie going out wide and thus without much of a marketing budget. The film has been aided greatly by mainstream media stories on Jolie which focused on the making of the film about murdered Wall Street Journal reporter Daniel Pearl.

Unfortunately, most recent stories on A Mighty Heart have focused on Jolie’s battle with the media, specifically Fox News, over access for interviews. Ms. Jolie had said she would not speak to the conservative news channel. She was forced to apologize and rescind her ban after some journalists pointed out how a particularly vital portion of A Mighty Heart is about the importance of a free press.

With that story dominating recent talk of A Mighty Heart the film has receded to the background. Now the film is not getting the critical support that had been expected, as of Thursday morning it was at 72% positive on Rotten Tomatoes, a good number but marketers had hoped for something stronger. With 1408 getting great critical notice, things are looking bleak for A Mighty Heart.

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THE WRAP: SILVER SURFER RIDES RICH WAVE

Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer outpaced expectations and the overcame the public’s sequel malaise with an impressive $57.4 million opening weekend, and a chart-leading $14,498 per screen average for the three-day frame.

Before the weekend, mediocre buzz on the film saw predictions range from $35 to $50 million, so Fox is probably extremely happy that the film did so well. It benefited from a PG rating and likely took much of the young business that Warner Bros. hoped Nancy Drew would generate. (That film opened at No. 7 after grossing $7.135 million this weekend.)

Ocean’s Thirteen followed at No. 2 after taking in $19.105 million over the weekend, for a 10-day gross of $69.81 million. Knocked Up followed at No. 3 after selling $14.535 million worth of tickets this weekend for a three-week gross of $90.482 million.

Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End grossed $12.024 million during its fourth weekend of release and has grossed $273.757 million since it opened. Rounding out the top five is Surf’s Up, which grossed $9.3 million this weekend, for a 10-day take of $34.671 million.

Outside the top 10, D.O.A.: Dead or Alive was dead on arrival, taking in $232,000 on 505 screens for a putrid $459 average per screen.

The weekend’s only notable limited release was Eagle Vs. Shark which captured $21,000 on only three screens for a good $7,000 per screen average.

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TICKETS OUT: WILL SILVER SURFER RIDE WAVE TO TOP OF WEEKEND BOX OFFICE?

As we get more distance from the big blockbusters, the second tier blockbusters amp up this weekend as Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer looks to recover from the underwhelming original.

The ad push on Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer has been rather astonishing. It began months ago and has kept up a methodical saturation that has awareness of the film at Spider-Man levels. The cast members, especially Jessica Alba, have been appearing anywhere and everywhere, from American Idol to sports talk radio (Alba was terrific on the Dan Patrick Show recently on ESPN Radio).

The key to this massive marketing push, ironically enough, has been playing down the Fantastic Four aspect of the Fantastic Four. Many will be forgiven for forgetting that this is a Fantastic Four sequel and not a movie designed and engineered solely for the Silver Surfer.

Based on the saturation marketing, and the major hurdle, overcoming the reputation of the first Fantastic Four, the opening weekend numbers should manage to top the opening of the first film in 2005. That film topped 56 million on its opening weekend. Rise of the Silver Surfer is aiming for something in the mid-sixties for a high end gross; while any number under 50 could be seen as disappointing.

FF:Rise of the Silver Surfer is going out with a PG rating, something that has rankled long time fans. Considering that the ad campaign has done little to distinguish itself from Spidey or Pirates (i.e. being younger or more kid friendly), the PG rating really only serves as a detriment to turning out the core Fantastic Four fans who were already disappointed with the original.

As reviews begin to trickle out the word is not encouraging with most calling it an improvement over the original but with many critics also pointing out the fact that they hated the original and don’t consider this enough of an improvement to recommend it. Critcs are unlikely to be much of a factor, movies this big tend to be critic proof.

The other new release of the weekend is a kids movie aimed at the tween-age girl market. Nancy Drew has a terrific young rising star in Emma Roberts, Julia’s niece, Eric’s daughter, and the cache of a beloved book series; one that is recommended in schools across the country.

However, kids lit adaptations are tricky business. For every success like Bridge To Terabithia or Charlotte’s Web there are bombs like How To Eat Fried Worms and Hoot. Right now, because of an atrocious marketing campaign and ugly reviews, Nancy Drew looks like How To Eat Fried Hoot.

Emma Roberts is an appealing, inviting young actress but critics are not sold on her talent yet. You may be thinking that critics don’t matter to tween girls and you’re right but they do matter to mom and dad and if mom and dad don’t want to go, the kids may not go either.

The oddball of the weekend is D.O.A.: Dead Or Alive, a comic book adaptation from director Cory Yuen. The film has already been released and moved to DVD overseas. Back home in America, the movie has been delayed since about this time last year. The Weinstein Company had a lot riding on this picture. However, after the disastrous release in Europe, the Brothers’ enthusiasm has waned.

D.O.A. is now only going out on 500 screens. There have been few trailers and nearly no ad push. Worst of all, star Jamie Pressley is crushing the film in interviews. To call D.O.A. dead on arrival is just such an easy joke that I’m embarrassed to even use it.

And then there is a wild card out there threatening to upend each of the weeks top releases. Box Office Mojo is reporting that Disney will sneak Ratatouille on 800 screens Saturday night. It’s just one show but it still could take a nice bite out of both FF:RSS and strangle Nancy Drew.

Again, it’s just one show on a Saturday evening but I’m sure if you asked Fox execs; and they gave you an honest answer, they would tell you this is not something they want to see happen. Ratatouille will pull heavily from the same pool as Fantastic Four in a primetime slot and could take a significant chunk out of the second day grosses.

Something to watch out for when the numbers come out Sunday morning.
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TICKETS OUT: WILL OCEAN'S SINK OR SWIM?

Three films amble into the market hoping to end the reign of the May trifecta of Spidey, Shrek and Pirates. For more than a month now one of those films has been at the top of the box office. That looks to finally come to an end this weekend. But which of the new releases will take the top spot?

My guess is Ocean’s 13 though I must say, I think the marketing has been somewhat underwhelming. Entering the market with an advantage of a PG-13 rating against last week’s new, younger-skewing hit Knocked Up and the equally younger skewing new release Hostel Part 2, Ocean’s needed to find a marketing hook for a younger audience.

Unfortunately, producers and marketers never seem to have found that hook. The ads and trailers play it safe, stick to the star power at the expense of young appeal. Don’t get me wrong, Brad Pitt and Matt Damon still have some cache in the younger market but Pitt’s audience is aging with him. George Clooney’s box office appeal outside this franchise is suspect to begin with, but what core he has is female and between 24 and 46.

The marketing challenge would have been helped by director Steven Soderbergh finding a hot young leading lady, a Jessica Alba/Jessica Biel type would have been perfect. Instead, Soderbergh goes for Ellen Barkin, a beautiful older woman with zero box office and marketing appeal.

Not getting younger will cost Ocean’s 13 some box office but not so much that it will miss out on the top slot. The older crowd will turn out, especially after they did not turn out for Kevin Costner’s Mr. Brooks last week; they have movie dollars burning a hole in their pocket.

Getting younger for Ocean’s would have meant the difference between a solid opening and a run at $140 million and opening huge with a run toward $175 million. Most studios I suspect would be satisfied at $140.

Eli Roth’s Hostel Part 2 enters the market with a solid base of horror film fans who turn out for anything in this genre and have been underserved thus far this summer. However, the film is going head to head demographically with Knocked Up; which has sensational buzz and looks likely to hold well. Both films are chasing the 18 to 24 males but where Hostel is trapped in that demo, Knocked Up has date appeal and that likely will make a big difference, with the ladies pulling their men to the comedy and romance of Knocked Up over the brutality of Hostel.

The weekend’s other new release has an outside chance of pulling an upset. Surf’s Up, the surfing penguin movie, is aiming for family audiences that have already been to Spidey/Shrek/Pirates and still have some money in their pocket. The key is whether or not mom and dad are burned out or tapped out on big summer blockbusters.
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