The Blog at Guess The Gross

THE WRAP: HOMER AND THE GANG MAKE LOTS OF D'OH

The Simpsons Movie exceeded the expectations of both Fox and box office gurus this weekend after taking in $71.85 million in its first three days of North American release. The film, which cost a relatively inexpensive $75 million to make took in $167 million worldwide this weekend, and turned a profit in three days. The film took in $18,319 per screen, the best of any film show on North American screens this weekend.

Last week’s top film, I Now Pronounce You Chck and Larry, grossed $19.063 million in its second weekend of release, for a 10-day total of $71.61 million.

Following at No. 3 is Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, which captured $17.065 million in sales this weekend and has taken in $241.771 million in its three weeks of release.

Hairspray dropped from No. 3 to No. 4 this week, taking in $15.55 million for a strong 10-day cume of $59.307 million.

Rounding out the top five is No Reservations which debuted with an $11.755 million opening weekend. The film grossed an average of $4,847 per screen.

Two other new releases debuted in the top 10: The Lindsay Lohan thriller I Know Who Killed Me took in $3.4 million this weekend, for a flop-tastic $2,575 per screen average. The film, which opened at No. 9, was hurt tremendously by Lohan’s inability to promote it due to her off-screen exploits and will end up on video by early fall.

Joining it on video store shelves will be Who’s Your Caddy, which opened at No. 10 on sales of $2.9 million over its first three days of release. The African-American Caddyshack rip-off grossed $2,845 per screen.

Three films opened in limited release: Moliere took in $32,900 on six screens for a $5,483 per screen average; No End In Sight grossed $32,000 on two screens for a strong $16,000 per screen average; and Arctic Tale took in $20,600 on four screens -- a $5,150 average per screen.

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TICKETS OUT: SIMPSONS HOPE TO TAKE HOME THE D'OH

The weekend is all about Homer, Marge, Bart, Lisa, and Maggie as they culminate a 20 year journey from the small screen to the big screen. So how does the Simpsons’ change in screen size compare with similar properties? Tracking on the Simpsons places it well beyond the strong if not spectacular showings of its cable cousins, 1998’s Beavis and Butthead Do America and 1999’s South Park: Bigger Longer and Uncut.

Both of those films came in under the $100 million dollar domestic mark despite loyal cult audiences. The Simpsons, having the advantage of being a network show, rather than a cable show, has a slightly larger following than either Beavis or South Park. The bigger differences however could be ratings. Homer and company, despite a cameo by Bart’s little Bart, has the somewhat family friendly PG-13 rating.

South Park went out with a hard R rating and managed an $11 million dollar opening and a total run of $52 million. Beavis and Butthead on the other hand did have the PG-13 which helped the film to a $20+ million dollar opening which lead to a $63 million dollar domestic run. The Simpsons hold another advantage over Beavis and Butthead however with its appeal to family audiences.

That will be the big difference. Has Fox managed to convince audiences that this is a family film? The marketing has not implicitly offered a family appeal message, preferring to let the volume of the marketing and the elements of the film itself to attract the audience. It’s a tough call whether mom and dad are convinced that The Simpsons is a movie they want to take the kids to.

If they are convinced then an opening weekend monster around $50 million. If not, the fan cult should still push the film to a strong $30+ million dollar opening. The film has the advantage of no other family appeal flicks opening this weekend and the returning competition, Harry Potter, Transformers and Ratatouille are weeks into their runs, (aside from Hairspray which, with a strong hold through the week, and great buzz could provide some competition.)

So what of the weekend competition for The Simpsons? Not one is likely delve beyond niche numbers. The highest profile new release aside from The Simpsons is the romance No Reservations starring Catherine Zeta Jones, Aaron Eckhardt and Oscar nominee Abigail Breslin. The film went out on several hundred screens last Saturday to little notice opposite the twin big releases Hairspray and I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry.

Zeta Jones hasn’t been on screen in nearly three years (The Legend of Zorro) and thus far in her career cannot claim an opening weekend success on her name alone. The same can be said of co-star Aaron Eckhardt who has audience goodwill as a character actor but is not yet a topline star. The biggest draw of the film could be Breslin who was beloved for her role in Little Miss Sunshine.

Unfortunately, it’s too much to ask a pre-teen girl to open a picture and no matter how much audience may have loved her Oscar nominated performance, the competition is way over the head of this picture which might have been better served with an August or September opening. As it is, the film will rely on older women to turn out, not a bad bet considering the lack of niche competition but this same niche audience just recently rejected Evening. No Reservation has given this audience no more reason than Evening did to turn out.

The controversial opening of the weekend is the new Lindsey Lohan film I Know Who Killed Me. The film famous for Ms. Lohan having taken pole dancing lessons for, she plays a stripper, is now entirely overshadowed and forgotten in the wake of the stars most recent meltdown. Lohan’s mugshot has been the films highest profile promotion and that for some reason hasn’t pushed interest in her new movie as much as it has increased traffic at the gossip website TMZ.com.

TMZ and other such outlets are likely to make more money this week than what I Know Who Killed me will in its opening weekend. With its R-rating, lack of niche appeal and Lohan’s complete and total overshadowing of the film with her personal problems, the only reliable audience for I Know Who Killed Me are perverts awaiting Lohan’s stripping scenes. Of course a good Internet connection and a Google search could likely satisfy that audience. My guess, an opening under $5 million.

Who’s Your Caddy? Who are you kidding? No one has heard of this film. Cynically it is being tossed out to appeal solely to African Americans starving for a movie with black lead actors or a predominately African-American audience. That niche likely won’t push the film past an opening weekend of maybe 5 million, more likely 3 or 4 million.

On the slow rollout front, Danny Boyle is stoking good buzz for his sci fi offering Sunshine. The film, starring Cillian Murphy has played strongly in major markets and moves this weekend to around 500 screens. The film’s national profile is quite low, but a strong internet campaign appealing to cinéastes and film lovers could help the film to a respectable opening for a film opening on fewer than 1,000 screens.

Also continuing a slow rollout with a similar niche appeal to Sunshine is Werner Herzog’s Vietnam movie Rescue Dawn. This is a film with strong critical support, a rising star in Christian Bale and an appeal to older males who live for a heroic military story.
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THE WRAP: CHUCK AND LARRY MORE POWERFUL THAN VOLDEMORT; DROP HARRY POTTER

I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry proved a more powerful foe for Harry Potter than Voldemort was after the Sandler-James flick took home an estimated $34.775 million in its first three days of release, knocking last week’s top film, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix to the No. 2 spot after the latter saw its ticket sales fall 58.3% from its first weekend of release to its second.

Chuck and Larry, which grossed as much as most observers expected it to, also posted the best per screen average of any wide release: $9,949. Meanwhile, Potter grossed $32.185 million for a 10-day total of $207.541 million. The film might have been hurt slightly by the fact that the final book in the Potter series, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows hit bookstores at midnight Saturday, and those fans who might have seen Potter a second time this weekend instead had their attentions diverted by the 700+ page tome, which sold 8.3 million copies in the United States in its first two das on store shelves.

The weekend’s other new wide release, Hairspray, performed very well, taking in $27.8 million this weekend for a strong $8,907 per screen average. The film opened above expectations of a low-20s opening and held the No. 3 spot on this weekend’s box office chart.

Transformers continues to perform well in its third weekend of release, grossing $20.506 million for an impressive $262.969 million total after 17 days of release. The week’s No. 4 film will likely near (and possibly cross) the $300 million mark by the end of next weekend, and expect the official announcement of Transformers 2 soon.

Rounding out the top five is Ratatouille, which took in $11 million this weekend for a four-week total of $165.628 million.

In limited release, director Danny Boyle’s Sunshine took in $235,000 despite unreeling on only 10 screens, for a chart-leading $23,500 per screen average. The poorly-reviewed Goya’s Ghosts grossed $167,000 on 49 screens for a weak average of $3,408 per screen.

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TICKETS OUT: CHUCK AND LARRY AND A FULL CAN OF HAIRSPRAY

Not a great weekend for right wing moviegoers. Not only is Michael Moore’s documentary Sicko moving to 1,500 screens nationwide, but that other enemy of the right wing, homosexuals, are getting not one but two high-profile, positive examples of gay cinema.

Now, I realize that when I say Hairspray is gay cinema, some of you recoil at my seeming employment of a stereotype but hear me out. Hairspray is an example of positive gay cinema because director Adam Shankman and producer John Waters (auteur of the original Hairspray) are both gay. Thus the success of Hairspray this weekend is a positive example of gay cinema. A gay director behind the lens of a big summer success is definitely a positive.

So how will Hairspray perform at the box office? The film is trending older and more female friendly than most of the competition. This is the perfect niche at the moment, demographically speaking. With Potter for the kids, Adam Sandler and Transformers for the boys, Hairspray has the femme demo almost all to itself.

If Hairspray can manage to wrestle even a small portion of the date crowd away from Chuck and Larry this could be the surprise opening of the summer.

As for I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry reviews are not great early on but most reviews do mention the film as being a positive for gay audiences. The movie, allegedly delivers a message of tolerance, love and acceptance behind its crude slapstick and could provide a real positive message to Sandler’s jock-ish fanbase. That is, if that fanbase will turn out to see Sandler play gay, even if he’s only faking it.

Playing up a nearly nude Jessica Biel in the ad campaign should help turn out the Sandler fans. The key then will be luring the date crowd and Chuck and Larry has a slight edge over Hairspray in that regard as guys just generally refuse to turn out for a musicals. Neither, Transformers or Harry Potter can be considered as date movies, so the date crowd is open for Chuck and Larry.

This time last year, Sandler opened Click to more than $40 million. That film had the advantage of a slightly less competitive weekend and a premise with wider appeal than the slightly more controversial Chuck and Larry. Does that mean that Chuck and Larry can’t open big? Of course not, but be prepared for an opening in the low to mid-30s and a second place finish behind week two of Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix.

Also this weekend, Warner Brothers is rolling out a sneak preview of the romantic comedy No Reservations starring Catherine Zeta Jones and Aaron Eckhardt. The film opens next week and based on weak early ad buys and one of the weakest trailers of the year, this could be a make or break for the films opening next weekend. How many people will sample No Reservations this weekend? The film has to pull audience from Hairspray and that could be tough going.

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SITE DOWN, CONTEST START DELAYED

Thanks to those who emailed me offline about Guess the Gross being down.

I’ve got an urgent email in to the site designer to see if he can fix the problem.

This film guessed week’s contest will be for I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry. For the time being, we’ll wait for the site to go back up. If it does not, we’ll run the contest here and ask you to post your guesses in the comments.

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THE WRAP: HARRY POTTER STILL MAGIC THE FIFTH TIME AROUND

Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, the fifth film in the seven-movie series, opened to a $77.41 million gross over the three day weekend, and a more impressive $140.017 million over its first five days of release.

Potter broke the slump faced by most of this summer’s sequels, exploding onto screens with a $18,065 per screen average, the best of any film in theatres this weekend. Worldwide, the film took in approximately $330 million in its first five days of global release.

Last week’s top film, Transformers, took in $36 million in its second week of release, and landed in second place, for a 10-day cume of $222.99 million.

Ratatouille landed at No. 3 after taking in $18.019 million in its third week of release, for a total North American take of $143.004 million.

Live Free or Die Hard broke the $100 million mark, and placed No. 4 this week after selling $10.875 million of tickets over the three-day weekend. The fourth film in the series has taken in $102.918 million in its first three weeks of release.

Rounding out the top five is License to Wed, which grossed $7.44 million this weekend, for a 10-day gross of $30.508 million.

The only other wide release this weekend, Captivity, debuted at No. 12 after taking in an abysmal $1.55 million this weekend. The horror-porn flick that Kernan decried in a recent column, is likely to leave theatres quickly.

In limited release, the well-reviewed Focus release Talk to Me took in $391,000 on 33 screens for an impressive $11,848 per screen average. My Best Friend took in $46,500 on three screens for a terrific $15,500 per screen average. Rounding out the new limited releases was Interview, which grossed $41,600 on six screens for a $6,933 per screen average.

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TICKETS OUT: CAPTIVITY

Why spend a column on a movie that people only really know because of a tasteless billboard? Maybe because it’s the only movie opening this Friday. Maybe it’s because Elisha Cuthbert is a stone cold fox. Whatever the reason, I find something about Captivity and the controversy that surrounds it that fascinates me enough to get me to ruminate on its box office potential and to delve into why what might just have been another horror-porn reject has become the subject of a nationwide discussion of censorship, misogyny and the state of the modern horror genre.

Captivity began life as just another horror movie idea until Oscar-nominated director Roland Joffe made the unlikely decision to direct this underwhelming genre piece. The director who leapt onto the Hollywood scene with back to back best director Oscar nominations for The Killing Fields and The Mission had fallen on hard times since those triumphs of the mid-1980’s.

Since The Mission’s multiple Oscar noms in 1986, Joffe has seen one failure after another, starting with the bloated epic Fat Man and Little Boy and the Patrick Swayze bust City of Joy in 1989 and 1992 respectively. Those modest failures were followed bizarrely enough by Joffe’s first diversion into the genre ghetto, an uncredited piece of touch up work on, of all things, The Super Mario Bros. movie.

Things only went further downhill from there for Joffe reaching their nadir with the disastrous Demi Moore remake of The Scarlett Letter and the oddball period piece Vatel, his most recent and least successful film to date. Thus we come to Captivity and a one-time, well-respected director seemingly desperate for work and a shrewd producer in need of a director with even a modest amount of credibility.

Meet After Dark films honcho Courtney Solomon, the brains behind last year’s surprisingly successful repackaging of several failed horror movies into "8 Films To Die For," a traveling horror movie festival for the less-than-discriminating horror movie fan. It was Solomon who had the bright idea to hire Joffe and it was this shyster marketing exec who thought it a fantastic idea to abandon Joffe’s more cerebral take on the material -- which was shown late last year in England -- in favor of a re-shot, re-cut version that played up the gore and the boobies.

Whether Joffe’s original vision was any good is in question given his recent track record. That Captivity is now positioned as yet another horror porn sleazefest may not in fact be his fault. That Solomon who issued the decree to the two time Oscar nominee to amp up the gore factor, is now irritated that his film has been painted with the horror porn label is either yet another oddball bit of marketing bluster or simple hubris from a producer feeling his oats after a few cheapie successes in the gutters of the lowball genre world.

This outrage of course comes from the same producer who feigned disbelief and then incompetence after the controversial billboard for the film appeared all over Los Angeles:The billboard that one advocacy group so adeptly described as a rape kit for dummies, features Cuthbert in four separate photos captioned Abduction, Confinement, Torture and Termination, so enraged the MPAA that the film was pulled from its original May release date, the result of the MPAA delaying the films ratings board hearing.

Oddly enough, posters for the film in international locations were surprisingly artful renditions of horror that likely would have been more effective than the shock approach that Solomon claimed was the mistake of an over-eager underling. That "mistake" has not precluded Solomon from playing into the controversy in order to sell the film. In Los Angeles, Solomon held a series of masochism themed premiere parties featuring dominatrices, strippers, and sideshow torture freaks.

What the parties did not feature were appearances by Cuthbert or Joffe. Neither has spoken out publicly about the film and it’s controversy, though Cuthbert has feigned support in her few media appearances. Joffe has been entirely mum on the film with not a negative or positive word other than what Solomon claims is his full support sent to him personally over the phone.

So how will this controversy play at the box office. Tracking numbers say that a majority of the country could care less about the film. The controversy peaked quickly over two months ago and with only a tiny marketing budget, mostly going to strippers and masochists in the Los Angeles area, Captivity seems destined to open under $4 million this weekend and disappear quicker than its more high profile genre sibling Hostel 2, the failure of which hopefully signaling the end of our fascination with the brainless torture of beautiful young women.

Captivity likely will not be the final nail in horror porn’s coffin, more like a footnote. A footnote in the history of an ugly film sub-genre and, if I may be slightly grandiloquent, in the history of America’s good taste in rejecting overt, detailed, and disturbing misogyny.

THE WRAP: TRANSFORMERS BLOWS AWAY COMPETITION

Transformers lit up the box office in its first six-and-a-half days of release and blew away the competition after taking in $67.6 million this weekend and $152.5 million since it hit North American theatre screens Monday night. The film took in an average of $16,853 per screen -- the best of any wide release this weekend and earned back its $150 million production budget in less than a week.

The film has performed extremely well with young audiences and Latino and African-American audiences, and has an outside shot at cracking the $300 million mark domestically. (And yes, Paramount and Dreamworks are probably green-lighting the sequel if they haven’t already.)

Ratatouille has performed very well in its first 10 days of release. This weekend’s No. 2 film took in $29.029 million from Friday through Sunday and its 10-day cume is $109.546 million.

Also performing well is Live Free or Die Hard which took in $17.4 million in its second weekend of release for a 10-day total of $84.16 million.

License to Wed debuted at No. 4 this week, taking in $10.4 million from Friday to Sunday. The film, which opened Wednesday, has taken in $17.816 million in its first five days of release -- a decent number when one considers how badly the film was butchered by reviewers.

Rounding out the top five is mega-flop Evan Almighty which took in $8.114 million this weekend and which has grossed $78.101 million in its first three weeks of release. The film is unlikely to break $100 million domestically and won’t come close to earning back its reported $175 million production budget.

In limited release, the well-reviewed Rescue Dawn took in $104,000 on 6 screens for a chart-leading average of $17,333 per screen. The film has taken in $162,000 since it hit theatre screens Wednesday.

Another limited release, Joshua, took in $51,100 in its first three days of release. The film, which opened on six screens, took in an impressive $8,516 per movie house.

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SUMMER MOVIE PREVIEW: JULY

Transformers: More than meets the eye visually - Less than meets the brain + Spielberg’s push for humanizing the story - Michael Bay’s directorial history + supercool visuals from ILM + limited competition from new releases that week + 80s fans of the series rejoicing - 80s fanboys turned 400 pound Internet addicted freaks unable to get up from their chairs in their parents’ respective basements and make it to the theatre = A huge opening weekend and a shot at $300 million, though the film will likely finish in the $265 million range.

License to Wed: Mandy Moore + almost the entire cast of The Office - mediocre trailers - Robin Williams and his recent track record in comedies - Transformers - July 4th opening when people are at the beach - disastrous reviews - no buzz = The second comedy disaster of the summer (after Evan Almighty) and the sad realization that the actors on The Office are likely better off sticking to television for the time being.

Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix: Built-in audience - running time as long as the title of the film means fewer showings per day + hype from upcoming final novel pushing people to the movies - hype from upcoming final novel creating a sense of apathy - mediocre long lead reviews = Another financial success that won’t derail the series but also won’t make people forget the success of the first few films in the series.

Captivity: We just won’t bother with this one since their ad campaign was so offensive. I suspect most people won’t bother to see this and it will die a quick death.

Talk to Me: Limited release + Don Cheadle in a potential award-winning role - narrow audience appeal + early reviews indicating that narrow minded audiences who skip this film are making a huge mistake = No significant impact at the July box office, but a potential limited re-release in the late fall to remind awards voters about this film.

Hairspray: Remake of a successful film/Broadway musical + relative unknown lead actress in rags to riches story - John Travolta in drag - remember what happened to the Producers remake = A film that will appeal to the female demographic, but which will not cross over like Dreamgirls or Chicago did.

I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry: Adam Sandler, Kevin James, and Jessica Biel + original premise + talented writers - appeal to conservative audiences + sleeper potential = A film that has come on strong of late in terms of audience interest which looks very funny. A definite sleeper hit.

Sunshine: Astronauts going to the sun to restart it - ridiculous premise - no advertising = Forgettable bomb that needs a miracle to save it from ignonimity.

I Know Who Killed Me: Potential sleeper - any goodwill ruined by association with Lindsay Lohan whose presence in the film will overshadow it = What seemed like a good casting idea will now ruin this film’s chances at the box office.

No Reservations: Chick flick - remake of successful foreign film - counterprogramming for summer - ZERO buzz = An opening under $10 million and quick death.

The Simpsons Movie: Film of legendary television show + edginess (PG-13 rating) + enormous fanbase + huge hype + 20 years of anticipation + likelihood that the script will be, at the very least, very good = A huge opening weekend, tons of repeat business. and more than $200 million in North American box office.

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TICKETS OUT: MORE THAN MEETS THE EYE EDITION

Another week, another early edition of Tickets Out. This time, we start the holiday week on a Monday with the premiere of Transformers, which is not only the film that is being predicted at guessthegross.com but also the first film to hit screens during this busy holiday week.

Director Michael Bay is nothing if not consistent, and his trademark extreme battle sequences and whiz-bang special effects are in full-effect mode in this film.

As someone who never saw an episode of the show when it aired in the 1980s -- by choice -- I’m not the target audience; however, after having seen the trailers, I admit a slight hankerin’ to see this puppy on the big screen.

I suspect that I’m not alone in that feeling. At the same time, I suspect that the majority of the audience will be male, which limits the film’s box office gross.

Expect a seven-day gross between $100 and $125 million (and yes, you’ll get my exact prediction prior to the close of the weekly contest.)

Don’t forget to make your guesses before 5:00 p.m. ET Wednesday, July 4 and check back on the blog for Kernan’s full Tickets Out column and the July edition of the summer movie preview.

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