The Blog at Guess The Gross

TICKETS OUT: HALLOWEEN COMES EARLY

While I was unimpressed with the ad push for Rob Zombie’s Halloween remake, the tracking seems to say that Dimension Films has a hit on its hands. The film is moving the meters well enough among males 18 to 24 that an opening over $20 million is more than likely this weekend.

This will be director Rob Zombie’s biggest hit thus far and, sadly, a comeback for the torture porn genre that he has made his home. After the twin failures of Hostel 2 and Captivity, some had thought that, perhaps, audiences were rejecting hardcore, blood and guts exploitation. Halloween however, looks like it will reverse the trend.

Of course, the Halloween brand name has as much or more to do with this resurgence than Zombie or his hardcore violence. Even the dregs of this horror franchise have managed decent openings. 2002’s Halloween Resurrection opened to more than $12 million and before that 1998’s Halloween H2O, which returned Jamie Lee Curtis to the series, opened with more than $16 million.

In a massive blunder, Fox is opening James Wan and Kevin Bacon’s revenge thriller Death Sentence opposite Halloween. It’s not because I think Halloween is going to be a monster this weekend. The problem is that both films are going after the same audience and Halloween wins on name recognition alone.

Death Sentence is getting few favors from critics who have thrashed the film. The worst of it coming from McNews (USA Today) which delivered a high profile pan from lead critic Claudia Puig. On the bright side, a positive review from Roger Ebert might help sell a couple of tickets.

The film’s only hope against the younger skewing Halloween is to appeal to older males with positive memories of Charles Bronson’s vigilante heyday. If by some miracle the nearly non-existent ad push for Death Sentence managed to reach older men, the film has a chance not to be a complete disaster.

THE WRAP: SUPERBAD STILL SUPERBEST

In a weekend where five new releases debuted on more than 800 screens, last week’s top film, Superbad , helped lead the summer box office take over the $4 billion mark this weekend as it held the No. 1 spot on the North American box office chart for a second consecutive week after taking in an estimated $18 million -- a 45.5% drop from last week. The film’s $6,105 per screen average was the best of any in wide release, and in its first 10 days, the hit comedy has grossed $68.572 million. Superbad is likely to break the $100 million barrier before it leaves theaters.

The Bourne Ultimatum jumped from No. 3 to No. 2 in its fourth week on the charts after capturing $12.361 in ticket sales. Matt Damon’s latest has taken in $185.143 million in its first month of release. Bourne swapped chart position with last week’s No. 2, Rush Hour 3, which took in $12.25 million in its third week of release, and has a $109.013 million cume.

The week’s top new release is Mr. Bean’s Holiday, which landed far above prognosticators’ expectations at No. 4. The film, which has already cracked the $100 mark overseas, took in $10.121 million in its first three days of release for an impressive $5,904 per screen average.

WAR debuted at No. 5 on sales of $10 million, which is below studio expectations. The film averaged a fair $4,391 per screen.

The film most expected to open atop the box office charts, The Nanny Diaries, debuted terribly at No. 6 on sales of $7.811 million. The MGM/Weinstein Brothers production took in a weak $2,971 per screen.

Outside the top 10, Resurrecting the Champ debuted at No. 15 on weak sales of $1.849 million. Its per-screen average of $1,152 was just more than half of the No. 16 film, Illegal Tender, which took in $1.436 million on only 512 screens in its first week of release for a $2,804 per screen average.

September Dawn debuted at No. 21 on sales of $1.051 million for a weak per screen average of $1,226.

In limited release, the week’s top debut was Deep Water, which took in $21,700 on two screens for a chart-leading $10,850 per screen average. Other notable limited releases include Hannah Takes the Stairs, which took in $6,450 on one screen, and Dedication, which grossed $24,000 on four screens for a $6,000 per screen average.

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TICKETS OUT: LI & STATHAM VS. SCARLETT JOHANNSEN

The box office battle for number one is Jet Li and Jason Statham vs. Scarlett Johannsen? Indeed, War and The Nanny Diaries are battling for the No. 1 spot on the box office charts this weekend, though don’t count out week two of Superbad, which has had a terrific hold all week to go with great buzz. Superbad is a longshot; it only retains if Nanny and War underperform, but you can’t count it out.

The Nanny Diaries has the screen count advantage over War and will seek a larger potential demo as well -- women age 25 to 45. The reviews have not been great for the Scarlett Johannsen comedy, but having been based on a best-selling novel, the built-in audience is large and likely to turn out. The film is tracking well with its target demographic and the likelihood of opening No. 1 with a gross in the range of $15 to $18 million looks pretty good.

War has had a terrific campaign, but the demo is slightly more narrow than Nanny Diaries and with solid competition from week two of Superbad, War seems likely to come up short of what the studio had hoped would be a $20+ million dollar opening. On the bright side, the budget for War was relatively low, compared to similar action flicks and internationally the film is an almost guaranteed blockbuster with Li and Statham both solid draws overseas.

In other international news, Mr. Bean’s Holiday has already grossed over $100 million dollars outside the US, so, any money the movie makes here is just gravy for the Bean franchise. The film is G-rated and targeting family audiences, not a bad tactic but also not a winning tactic. Kids prefer cartoons and the live action kids movie market is spotty at best. Again, it doesn’t matter, the release of Mr. Bean’s Holiday is perfunctory, for once, the US market is the ancillary as opposed to the way we often treat Europe.

Resurrecting The Champ is one of those anomalous releases that don’t seem to fit on any weekend. The film is getting good notice from critics and is smartly targeted to older audiences. Unfortunately, the last minute choice to push the film as a wide release after initially offering it up as a platform release aiming wider in September, has left the ad campaign trying to catch up with the release. The film’s trailer has had little play on any of the major releases nationwide and the ad campaign has done nothing to clear up the narrative. Most audiences aren’t sure what the film is about, and that is a big problem.

The final new release of the weekend is September Dawn, a film that is relying on controversy as its selling point. The religious drama about the Mormon massacre of Christians in Utah in 1857 posits the theory that Mormon prophet Brigham Young was responsible for the massacre. The film is relying on religious audiences who have not been turning out for much of anything since Passion of the Christ. Though Hollywood still seems to think that they can reach this religious demo, movies like September Dawn will continue to prove that Passion was a once in a lifetime movie phenomena.
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THE WRAP: SUPERBAD ROCKS THE BOX

Superbad blew up at the box office this weekend, besting most box office estimates en route to topping the North American box office this weekend.

The Sony comedy took in $31.2 million in its first three days of release for a strong $10,583 per screen average, the best average of any film in wide release. The raunchy, well-reviewed comedy, which is likely to be the last big hit of the summer, took advantage of its mid-August opening slot by building up strong buzz with its steady, summer-long ad campaign.

With a $20 million production budget (and an ad budget that is likely equal), the film will make its money back from its domestic theatre run and might rack up more than $100 million in profit for its producers and distributors when foreign, DVD, and other ancillary revenue eventually rolls in.

Last week’s top film, Rush Hour 3, dropped to the No. 2 spot this weekend after grossing $21.831 million in its second weekend of release for a 10-day total of $88.154 million.

The Bourne Ultimatum dropped from No. 2 to No. 3 on ticket sales of $18.986 million. The film has grossed $163.806 million in its three weeks of domestic release and looks likely to break the $200 million mark domestically during its big-screen run.

Last week’s No. 3 film, The Simpsons Movie, dropped to No. 4 after grossing $6.675 million this weekend. The animated feature has taken in $165.117 million in four weeks of release and has an outside shot at the $200 million mark.

Rounding out the top five is The Invasion. The Nicole Kidman-Daniel Craig remake of Invasion of the Body Snatchers took in $6 million this weekend for a dreadful $2,161 per screen average.

Outside the top 10, The Weinstein Company’s The Last Legion opened at No. 12 on sales of $2.597 million. It grossed a terrible $1,297 per screen.

In limited release, Death at a Funeral debuted at No. 17 after grossed $1.303 million after debuting on 260 screens for a fair per screen average of $5,011.

Outside the top 20, The 11th Hour opened strongly on four screens with $56,000. Its per-screen average of $14,000 tied for best of any film released on North American screens this weekend.

The well-reviewed documentary The King of Kong: A Fistful of Quarters grossed $50,300 on five screens for a strong $10,060 per screen average. Manda Balla (Send a Bullet) grossed $14,000 on one screen. 7 Dias grossed $9,520 on nine screens for a $1,190 per screen average.

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TICKETS OUT: SUPERBAD LOOKS TO BE SUPER HOT

The movie to watch this weekend is the teen comedy Superbad from super-hot producer Judd Apatow and his Knocked Up cohort Seth Rogen. This comedy, in the classic tradition of Porky’s and American Pie, stars a pair of up-and-coming stars, Michael Cera and Jonah Hill, and is rated a very hard R for nudity and language.

Regardless of the rating and the highly ribald humor, critics have expressed nothing but love for Superbad which by Thursday evening was looking like it may end up as one of the best reviewed films of the year. The critics are stoking buzz that has helped turn around tracking numbers that had been lagging well below the expectations of producers who hoped to match the $20+ million dollar opening of Knocked Up and follow that film’s box office track to $100+ million overall.

Superbad has succeeded with help from critics as well as an ad campaign that in the last week began throwing off the reigns and playing up the R-rated humor. The first few weeks of ads were in heavy rotation were a little timid compared to the actual humor of the film. The turnaround came nearly two weeks ago when the studio released the so-called "Red Band" trailer.

The "Red Band" trailer is not often seen in theaters because it can only run in front of R-rated movies. Thus, it is a risky venture. However, in the new age of the Internet, the "Red Band" trailer has a new home on You Tube where the R-rated clip has gained heavy views alongside some 2-and 3-minute snippets of the film that reveal these characters and what the film is about without spoiling all of the film’s funniest jokes.

The turnaround of Superbad is one that will be watched closely by other studios as the film hits theaters and is likely to be copied in the future after this teen comedy turns in a $20+ million dollar opening.

The other major release of this weekend is The Invasion starring Nicole Kidman and Daniel Craig. This highly-troubled remake of Invasion of the Body Snatchers has been re-shot almost completely after director Oliver Hirschbiegel completed and turned in a cut that studio executives didn’t feel was scary or exciting enough.

Turning things over to the V For Vendetta team of producers Andy and Larry Wachowski and director James McTiegue, the film was almost entirely redone with little of the Hirschbiegel cut left in. This too-many-cooks-in-the-kitchen approach is likely what has critics trashing this picture with even positive reviews reading negative.

Take Owen Gleiberman’s allegedly positive take on the film in Entertainment Weekly: "The Invasion gets you rooting for the aliens to be defeated, but the film’s soul feels as if it had already been snatched". If the positive reviews read like that you can only imagine how nasty the negatives have been. Still, the studio seems somewhat committed to the picture.

The ad campaign has been pretty good with a decent trailer and well targeted ad buy. As big a problem as the behind the scenes issues and bad reviews is that the film will go head to head with the suddenly hot Superbad for the 18 to 24 crowd. The Invasion, like Superbad, carries an R-rating, so no advantage there. Thus the film will rely almost solely on Kidman and the reputation of the Body Snatchers to draw a crowd.

Kidman is a well-liked star but has never been much of a box office draw. The Stepford Wives, Bewitched, and Birth each bombed at the box office with Kidman on the topline. Her last film, the Diane Arbus-pseudo biography Fur, couldn’t even muster the box office juice to get beyond 200 screens nationwide. Her last hit was The Interpreter and that film can really only be called a modest hit having come up short of 100 million domestic.

The oddball element of the marketing of The Invasion is how little Craig shows up in the ads. Ask many moviegoers and they may not even recall that the new James Bond is even in The Invasion. Considering that Craig has been a part of two $100 million dollar domestic grossers in just the last two years -- Munich and Casino Royale -- it would seem prudent to focus as much of the marketing on Craig as on Kidman. What exactly is the studio trying to hide by keeping Craig in the background?

The last new release is the oddball of the week. The Last Legion is a period piece starring international star Aishwarya Rai and Colin Firth. The film has absolutely zero chance of making big bank in the United States and yet ,The Weinstein Company has put a surprising amount into the marketing of The Last Legion. No doubt trying to reach the older crowd, the ad campaign is well targeted but the tactical error of withholding the film from critics may cost the film a million bucks or two.

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THE WRAP: RUSH HOUR 3 TOPS CHART

Rush Hour 3 topped the weekend box office, finishing with a slightly lower estimated three-day take than most predicted -- $50.237 million -- that placed its opening weekend take lower than that of Rush Hour 2.

The Jackie Chan-Chris Tucker action comedy wrapped the trilogy six years after the second film graced screens. Fans seemed relatively undisturbed by the long span between films, and the movie averaged $13,297 per screen -- the best of any film in wide release this weekend.

Last week’s top film, The Bourne Ultimatum, dropped to No. 2 this weekend after taking in $33.672 million, for an impressive 10-day cume of $132.345 million and a strong $9,135 per screen average.

Former No. 1 The Simpsons Movie continues to perform well, capturing $11.125 million for a three-week gross of $152.237 million.

Despite strong reviews, Stardust debuted weakly at No. 4, taking in $9.011 million. The $70-million budgeted film averaged $3,547 per screen.

Rounding out the top five is Underdog, which grossed $6.456 million in its second week of release for a 10-day gross of $24.747 million.

Daddy Day Camp opened at the bottom of the top 10 after taking in $3.55 million this weekend for a five-day cume of $5.035 million. The film averaged $1,522 per screen this weekend.

Outside the top 10, Skinwalkers limped onto 737 screens with a three-day take of $565,000, which translated into a miserable $766 per screen average.

In limited release, 2 Days in Paris exploded onto 10 screens, taking in $181,000 for an chart-topping $18,100 per screen average. Rocket Science also debuted impressively in limited release, taking in $56,900 on six screens for a strong $9,483 per screen average. Dans Paris took in $13,200 on only two screens for a $6,600 per screen average.

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TICKETS OUT: RUSH 3 NOT CHAN AND TUCKER'S FINEST HOUR?

The Rush Hour series has been stunningly successful. The 1998 original cost just $33 million to make and was profitable before the opening weekend on the strength of Chris Tucker’s motormouth comedy and Jackie Chan’s non-stop stunt work. Rush Hour 2 moved the action to China and doubled the opening weekend box office to over $67 million.

Now, more than six years later, with Tucker having disappeared from the screen since the last Rush Hour film, the series returns and the stakes are high for a big opening weekend. The salaries of Chan, Tucker and director Brett Ratner combined exceed the entire budget of the original film.

For Rush Hour 3 to be profitable, the film needs a solid opening weekend, somewhere in the $50 million dollar range. The last Rush Hour topped $67 million but with Tucker having disappeared from the screen for six years and Chan’s star diminishing as his ability to perform his own stunts dwindles, the prospects for Rush Hour 3 are dimmer than were those for Rush Hour 2.

Though some experts are still betting high, tracking shows there is not as much interest in this film as some seem to think. The film is not about to bomb, but don’t expect the number that Rush Hour 2 posted in 2001. A number in the high 40s would be a disappointment given the hype around this film, but that number is not out of the question. My bet would be a little higher than the low end expectations, though not much higher.

The returning competition from the much buzzed about The Bourne Ultimatum should cut into Rush Hour 3’s opening weekend, but there she be nothing stopping Rush Hour from reaching the top of this weekend’s box office. The trouble for Rush Hour 3 is in the long term perspective.

The other major league, 1000+ screen opening of the week is Stardust starring Claire Danes, Robert De Niro and Michele Pfeiffer. This fascinating fantasy romance from graphic artist Neil Gaiman has great buzz, but the ad campaign has been somewhat muted. Audiences aren’t quite sure what to make of the film. The period setting is opposed by the odd fantasy elements, leaving many to wonder if this is Monty Python or some kind of art picture.

Neil Gaiman has a small but loyal cult that will turn out, as should the film buff crowd. The key to a double figure millions opening for Stardust will be turning out women. Stardust is the top choice for women this weekend and if they turn out, it could be a very good weekend for the film.

The other new release of the weekend is the dead on arrival horror flick Skinwalkers. This werewolf picture from Lionsgate and After Dark Films is not getting much of any ad support and is not long for the theater lobby. Opening on just over 500 screens, the film is leaning on hardcore horror fans, a solid cult, who if they turn out could push the film to $3 or $4 million for the weekend.

On the platform front, Becoming Jane, the fictional take on the life of writer Jane Austen is moving out, almost wide, onto just over 400 screens. The film did big business in limited release last weekend,which gave the studio the courage to take the film out wider. The film will battle Stardust for the female moviegoers.

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BOURNE IDENTIFIES; CAPS THE COMPETITION

The Bourne Ultimatum topped the box office on a weekend where four films debuted on more than 1,500 screens and two additional buzzworthy limited releases battled for space on North American theatre screens.

The final film in the Bourne trilogy took in $69.284 million in its first three days of release. The film captured a powerful $18,929 per screen and dropped last week’s top film, The Simpsons Movie, to No. 2.

Springfield’s most famous family saw its ticket sales drop a steep 66.1% weekend to weekend, but the film still took in a strong $25.111 million, raising its 10-day cumulative total to $128.061 million. The film, which was budgeted at $75, has taken in more than $300 million worldwide in just over a week.

Underdog debuted at No. 3 on sales of $11.585 million, which translated into a weak $3,845 per screen. The film was unable to defeat The Simpsons’ juggernaut, but still entered the chart where most box office prognosticators predicted that it would.

I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry dropped from No. 2 to No. 4 on sales of $10.626 million, for a three-week total of $91.795 million.

Rounding out the top five is Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, which grossed $9.522 million this weekend for a four-week total of $261.027 million.

Elsewhere in the top 10, Hot Rod debuted weakly at No. 9 after capturing $5.311 million for a $2,037 per screen average. Rounding out the top 10 was BRATZ, which did not reach many tweens, taking in $4.208 million this weekend for a $2,788 per screen average.

The Jennifer Lopez-Marc Anthony biopic El Cantante entered the chart at No. 12 and grossed $3.202 million in its first three days of release for a fair $5,907 per screen average. Meanwhile, the Jane Austen biopic Becoming Jane took in $972,066 for a strong (if not spectacular) $9,720 average per screen.

In limited release Gandhi My Father took in $174,425 on 38 screens for a $4,590 per screen average. The Ten grossed $121,374 on its opening weekend for a $4,854 per screen average.

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TICKETS OUT: BOURNE RETURNS FOR THIRD TIME

Matt Damon returns to the role that made him a box office superstar and looks to become even bigger. The last Bourne outing opened to over $50 million dollars. The buzz this time is even bigger with tracking predicting an opening in the $60 to $70 million dollar range. The reviews have been off the charts with Supremacy on track to become the best-reviewed film of the year thus far. This could help the film get a little older and expand beyond the usual audience of 18 to 24 males.

If the positive reviews turn out older audiences and the cinéaste cult, that $60 to $70 million dollar number is assured and Bourne goes from solid franchise to full-on blockbuster.

With Bourne set to dominate the remaining field of three-and-a-half wide releases will battle for box office scraps.

Underdog, Disney’s live action adaptation of the boomer cartoon classic, looked like a potential family movie hit. However, with a disappointing ad campaign and The Simpsons and Hairspray dominating the family audience in their second and third week respectively, Underdog is looking... well... like an box office Underdog.

Hot Rod is a competitor with the teens who can’t get in to see Bourne. If one film will pick up the Bourne overflow this weekend it could be Hot Rod and that is a lucrative niche. The ad campaign has been strong in ubiquity but rather scattershot in content. We know the film is about a doofus stuntman and we know the tone is laid back slapstick but where is the one good hook, that one good joke that ties the whole campaign together? The Hot Rod trailers and ad campaign simply doesn’t have that hook and that could be the difference between an opening in the mid teens and an opening over $20 million.

The tween girl movie Bratz has pushed a strong campaign on MySpace.com that seems to have been quite effective with the target audience. However, there is little to no chance that this film will get beyond that minor niche. Not that Lionsgate is relying on this film to be a major hit; rather, the low budget comedy has the similar aim of 2004’s Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants: open in the high single digits, climb to the mid $20s or low $30s overall and land on DVD already in the black. It’s a solid plan but Sisterhood had the benefit of a tad more star power and far better critical reviews. On the bright side, the film needs only a $5 million dollar opening to almost guarantee profitability.

I mentioned earlier, three-and-a-half wide openings other than Bourne this weekend, the half is Jennifer Lopez’s return to the big screen: El Cantante. This biopic of the late salsa king Hector Lavoe is opening on just 542 screens, hence the half wide opening. Picturehouse, the indie arm of New Line Cinema, has given the film a good deal of ad support but with the film having sat on the shelf over a year, Jennifer Lopez’s star dwindling and Hector Lavoe long gone from the consciousness of pop culture; the film will rely heavily on a niche of Latino moviegoers.

SUMMER MOVIE PREVIEW: AUGUST

The Bourne Ultimatum: Hot franchise + hot star + Exceptional trailer - R-rating? + Paul Greengrass directs - Last sequel + Excellent early reviews = An early August blockbuster and a rare franchise that has gained box office momentum each time out. The Bourne Supremacy opened to more than $50 million in 2004. The Bourne Ultimatum is generating buzz for a possible $70+ million dollar opening and a strong shot at $200+ million overall if they can continue to stoke the current buzz with strong word of mouth.
Bratz: Fem-teen appeal - Niche audience + Popular toy tie ins - No stars - No parents appeal + Low budget = Teen girls is a good niche but if you can’t get mom and dad to join them, the money is not there beyond the opening weekend. The bright side, no stars, no back end deals, and a low budget could help the film turn a small profit.

El Cantante: Bad buzz - Small theatrical rollout + Good niche - Small niche - Little known subject + Strong ad support + Passion project - Declining star - Over a year on the shelf = Jennifer Lopez and Marc Anthony have been very passionate about making this bio of singer Hector Lavoe. Unfortunately the project, among other things, has kept Lopez out of the public eye. Her declining star power and growing diva reputation have put a dent in her once promising box office draw. El Cantante will rely on its ethnic niche to sustain the picture in a slow roll out, only 500 screens in its opening weekend with no promise of expansion unless the film performs above expectations opening weekend.

Hot Rod: Dumb Comedy is hot + Rising star + PG-13 rating - Opening opposite Bourne - Opening against The Simpsons week 2 + Strong teen appeal = Hot Rod has not stoked the buzz of its early trailers as well as marketers had hoped but the teen appeal seems to be there but opening weekend competition and the upcoming, similarly targeted Superbad put Hot Rod’s long term box office in question.

Underdog: Baby boomer favorite - Baby boomer favorite - No stars - No animation + Disney movie - Weak ad support - Bad trailer = Underdog is a tough read. Parents remember the cartoon but was anyone clamoring for a live action remake? Animal movies are pretty hit and miss, with fewer hits than misses, anyone remember Firehouse Dog? With Disney behind it; Underdog shouldn’t be in as bad a shape as it’s in. For some reason, Disney doesn’t seem to be putting on the full court press. With the family audience divided between Hairspray, Simpsons, Bratz, and mom and dad desperate to see Bourne, this was a pretty rough weekend to launch Underdog. Don’t expect a big performer.

Daddy Day Camp: Cuba Gooding Jr. - No name co-star - No Eddie Murphy - Not even Jeff Garlin? - Wednesday opening? = Who is Sony kidding with this reject? Without Eddie Murphy this is a direct to video franchise. Cuba Gooding Jr.’s career has been over for a while now, his Oscar glory long faded. With a bizarre decision to open this buzz free pseudo sequel, it is quite clear Sony is cleaning the shelves.

Rush Hour 3: Popular franchise + The return of Chris Tucker - Jackie Chan is getting old + Brett Ratner - Brett Ratner + High awareness + PG-13 rating = Rush Hour 3 is tracking big and star Chris Tucker seems to have lost nothing of his box office appeal in his six years away from the screen. It helps that he is returning to a popular franchise with a loyal fan following. It also helps that Tucker remains one of the most affable and scandal free actors in the business. Rush Hour 3 will no doubt put Tucker back in the top tier of Hollywood earners.

Skinwalkers: Horror doesn’t play in the heat of summer - Zero star power - No buzz - Bad trailer = When did August become a dumping ground? Usually, movies like Skinwalkers are dusted off in September or even held till January or February where they quietly pass thru theaters. Skinwalkers will take up space for two weeks before disappearing to video.

Stardust: Neil Gaiman + All star cast - Cast mostly past its prime + Hot young director + Good trailer + Strong geek support = Neil Gaiman has a very loyal cult but do they trust Matthew Vaughn to interpret Gaiman? That may be the difference between an opening under $10 million and something in the mid to low teens. DeNiro is a good draw for older audiences while Michelle Pfeiffer began her career second act with strong work in Hairspray. The problem for Stardust is the same problem that Underdog has in the previous week: a crowded marketplace. There may simply be too many movies out there for a little-known but seemingly worthy effort like Stardust.

Becoming Jane: Anne Hathaway + Jane Austen + Older fem appeal + Critical support - low profile + Slow rollout to build buzz + Award contender? = A bio of Jane Austen is the latest spin on the Pride and Prejudice legend. This popular romantic fantasy still has legs and in a limited release with some award possibilities, there is a market. The key for the studio however is the international appeal. The most recent Pride and Prejudice adaptation made nearly $100 million in foreign dollars.

The Invasion: James Bond (Daniel Craig) + Nicole Kidman + Sci fi cult - Average trailer - Troubled production - Fired director - remake = A disaster in the making. This remake of Invasion of the Body Snatchers has faced a number of production delays, reshoots, and even a fired director. Oliver Hirschbiegel, the German director of Das Experiment, was fired after his more cerebral take on the material came up short of the action that Warner Bros. Wanted. Enter director James McTeigue whose V For Vendetta was a hit for Warner Bros. last year. McTeigue brought the stars back and added some big action set pieces. And the early reviews say? It’s an absolute mess. With Nicole Kidman’s box office star on the wane and few people interested in Daniel Craig outside of his Bond work, the box office hurdles are likely too high for The Invasion.

The Last Legion: Sir Ben Kingsley + Colin Firth - No big money draw - Long shelf life - Period piece + Aishwarya Rai = The strange August releases continue with this dusty period piece. The Last Legion has been on the shelf at MGM for 2 years. They are launching this one in mid-August hoping to appeal to older male audiences. Unfortunately, as films like The Great Raid can attest, that is a very fickle and unreliable demographic. On the bright side, domestic numbers on The Last Legion are negligible. The film has a good deal of international appeal with Sir Ben Kingsley and Colin Firth popular in Europe and the gorgeous Aishwarya Rai a big star in India and Southeast Asia. A total domestic run under $10 million dollars will be a little embarrassing but the foreign numbers should make The Last Legion modestly profitable.

Superbad: Seth Rogan + Producer Judd Apatow + McLovin + Red Band Trailer - R rating - Bad tracking = Though critics have been kind and the ad campaign has been terrific, there is reason to worry for the producers of Superbad. The early tracking is slow and awareness is not nearly as high as I’m sure they would hope. By this time in the release of Knocked Up, the film Superbad is patterned after, that film was already looking like a hit. Superbad is tracking much closer to a similar teen appeal R-rated comedy, 2004’s Harold and Kumar Go To White Castle. That film had a lot of positive buzz early and then opened to only $5 million dollars and a total of $18 million for its entire domestic run. Those numbers would be a disappointment for Superbad.

Illegal Tender: Low budget + Studio support + Producer John Singleton - No stars + Good niche = Who’s Rick Gonzalez? You have seen him in a number of bit parts, most prominently in Old School but you would never call him a star. Singleton is a draw, his name helped sell Hustle and Flow to a large niche. The low budget is good news and if the film is well reviewed that could help pull some audience but don’t expect Illegal Tender to break out.

Mr. Bean’s Holiday: International sensation + Loyal following = Anything Mr. Bean’s Holiday makes in America is mere icing on the cake. The film has made more than $100 million worldwide already, so Universal and Studio Canal are not sweating this release at all.

September Dawn: What?- Who? - Why? = Though it’s listed as a wide release right now, it’s hard to believe that this period drama romance will actually open beyond mid-major markets. The fight for screen space is nasty this month and with blockbusters hanging on longer and longer, there simply isn’t enough room for a film without a bigger star or better hook than September Dawn.

War: Jet Li + Jason Statham + Hardcore action Violence = A late summer surprise that may not put up blockbuster numbers but will put up the same solid numbers that made The Transporter series a money maker. With a mid-level budget, and a good opening date, War is looking like a definite cash machine.

Balls Of Fury: Christopher Walken + Ping Pong - Lennon and Garant script - Unknown star + Strong ad support = A complete unknown, Balls of Fury stars Dan Fogler (?) as a ping pong champion and Christopher Walken as a Japanese ping pong impresario. That last part sounds funny in theory but with Thomas Lennon and Ben Garant (Reno 911, The Pacifier, Taxi) behind the scenes, Balls of Fury is likely to be a tediously unfunny mess, if their track record holds up.

Death Sentence: From the creators of Saw - Kevin Bacon-box office? - Dead Silence box office = A move from the horror genre to hardcore action is an interesting move for the creators of Saw. However, as March’s Dead Silence demonstrated, James Wan and Leigh Whannell are not box office draws when working without their Jigsaw. The film will need a strong ad push to compete with Jet Li and Jason Statham in War.

Halloween: Rob Zombie + Legendary franchise - The decline of horror porn - Halloween in August? + Surprising buzz = I am shocked at the number of people who have asked me about this film. However, most are members of the horror cult and the film is very unlikely to get outside that cult. History seems to be on Rob Zombie’s side; Michael Bay’s Texas Chainsaw Massacre remake opened to $28 million dollars on its way to a gross over $80 million.