The Blog at Guess The Gross

THE WRAP: NATIONAL TREASURE NO.1 AGAIN

National Treasure: Book of Secrets continued to hold the top spot on the weekend box office charts after taking in $20.225 million this weekend. The action sequel has taken in $171.033 million in its three weeks of release and is almost guaranteed to take in $200 million domestically. Get ready for National Treasure: Guidebook to New York City.

Will Smith’s I Am Legend is also likely to spawn a sequel after rising from No. 3 to No. 2 and taking in $16.3 million in its fourth week of release for a $228.638 million cume.

Juno performed exceptionally, jumping from No. 5 to No. 3 after expanding to 1,925 screens, taking in $16.225 million for a five-week total of $52.032 million.

Another surprising success, Alvin and the Chipmunks, took in another $16 million in its fourth weekend of release and dropped from No.2 to No. 4. The film has grossed $176.738 million during its North American theatrical run. The film, which was budgeted at $60 million, looks likely to crack the $200 million barrier -- a figure that all-but guarantees that there’ll at least one more go-round for this classic franchise.

Rounding out the top five is the weekend’s only new wide release -- One Missed Call -- which captured $13.525 million in its first weekend of release.

While no new film debuted in limited release, There Will Be Blood performed extremely well in limited release. The film expanded from two to 51 screens, but managed to take in an impressive $26,215 per screen, the best of any film playing this weekend. Other notable limited releases include The Bucket List, which took in an average of $19,687 on 13 screens, and Persepolis, which captured $11,428 per screen on seven screens.

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TICKETS OUT: BOURNE RETURNS FOR THIRD TIME

Matt Damon returns to the role that made him a box office superstar and looks to become even bigger. The last Bourne outing opened to over $50 million dollars. The buzz this time is even bigger with tracking predicting an opening in the $60 to $70 million dollar range. The reviews have been off the charts with Supremacy on track to become the best-reviewed film of the year thus far. This could help the film get a little older and expand beyond the usual audience of 18 to 24 males.

If the positive reviews turn out older audiences and the cinéaste cult, that $60 to $70 million dollar number is assured and Bourne goes from solid franchise to full-on blockbuster.

With Bourne set to dominate the remaining field of three-and-a-half wide releases will battle for box office scraps.

Underdog, Disney’s live action adaptation of the boomer cartoon classic, looked like a potential family movie hit. However, with a disappointing ad campaign and The Simpsons and Hairspray dominating the family audience in their second and third week respectively, Underdog is looking... well... like an box office Underdog.

Hot Rod is a competitor with the teens who can’t get in to see Bourne. If one film will pick up the Bourne overflow this weekend it could be Hot Rod and that is a lucrative niche. The ad campaign has been strong in ubiquity but rather scattershot in content. We know the film is about a doofus stuntman and we know the tone is laid back slapstick but where is the one good hook, that one good joke that ties the whole campaign together? The Hot Rod trailers and ad campaign simply doesn’t have that hook and that could be the difference between an opening in the mid teens and an opening over $20 million.

The tween girl movie Bratz has pushed a strong campaign on MySpace.com that seems to have been quite effective with the target audience. However, there is little to no chance that this film will get beyond that minor niche. Not that Lionsgate is relying on this film to be a major hit; rather, the low budget comedy has the similar aim of 2004’s Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants: open in the high single digits, climb to the mid $20s or low $30s overall and land on DVD already in the black. It’s a solid plan but Sisterhood had the benefit of a tad more star power and far better critical reviews. On the bright side, the film needs only a $5 million dollar opening to almost guarantee profitability.

I mentioned earlier, three-and-a-half wide openings other than Bourne this weekend, the half is Jennifer Lopez’s return to the big screen: El Cantante. This biopic of the late salsa king Hector Lavoe is opening on just 542 screens, hence the half wide opening. Picturehouse, the indie arm of New Line Cinema, has given the film a good deal of ad support but with the film having sat on the shelf over a year, Jennifer Lopez’s star dwindling and Hector Lavoe long gone from the consciousness of pop culture; the film will rely heavily on a niche of Latino moviegoers.

THE WRAP: HOMER AND THE GANG MAKE LOTS OF D'OH

The Simpsons Movie exceeded the expectations of both Fox and box office gurus this weekend after taking in $71.85 million in its first three days of North American release. The film, which cost a relatively inexpensive $75 million to make took in $167 million worldwide this weekend, and turned a profit in three days. The film took in $18,319 per screen, the best of any film show on North American screens this weekend.

Last week’s top film, I Now Pronounce You Chck and Larry, grossed $19.063 million in its second weekend of release, for a 10-day total of $71.61 million.

Following at No. 3 is Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, which captured $17.065 million in sales this weekend and has taken in $241.771 million in its three weeks of release.

Hairspray dropped from No. 3 to No. 4 this week, taking in $15.55 million for a strong 10-day cume of $59.307 million.

Rounding out the top five is No Reservations which debuted with an $11.755 million opening weekend. The film grossed an average of $4,847 per screen.

Two other new releases debuted in the top 10: The Lindsay Lohan thriller I Know Who Killed Me took in $3.4 million this weekend, for a flop-tastic $2,575 per screen average. The film, which opened at No. 9, was hurt tremendously by Lohan’s inability to promote it due to her off-screen exploits and will end up on video by early fall.

Joining it on video store shelves will be Who’s Your Caddy, which opened at No. 10 on sales of $2.9 million over its first three days of release. The African-American Caddyshack rip-off grossed $2,845 per screen.

Three films opened in limited release: Moliere took in $32,900 on six screens for a $5,483 per screen average; No End In Sight grossed $32,000 on two screens for a strong $16,000 per screen average; and Arctic Tale took in $20,600 on four screens -- a $5,150 average per screen.

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TICKETS OUT: SIMPSONS HOPE TO TAKE HOME THE D'OH

The weekend is all about Homer, Marge, Bart, Lisa, and Maggie as they culminate a 20 year journey from the small screen to the big screen. So how does the Simpsons’ change in screen size compare with similar properties? Tracking on the Simpsons places it well beyond the strong if not spectacular showings of its cable cousins, 1998’s Beavis and Butthead Do America and 1999’s South Park: Bigger Longer and Uncut.

Both of those films came in under the $100 million dollar domestic mark despite loyal cult audiences. The Simpsons, having the advantage of being a network show, rather than a cable show, has a slightly larger following than either Beavis or South Park. The bigger differences however could be ratings. Homer and company, despite a cameo by Bart’s little Bart, has the somewhat family friendly PG-13 rating.

South Park went out with a hard R rating and managed an $11 million dollar opening and a total run of $52 million. Beavis and Butthead on the other hand did have the PG-13 which helped the film to a $20+ million dollar opening which lead to a $63 million dollar domestic run. The Simpsons hold another advantage over Beavis and Butthead however with its appeal to family audiences.

That will be the big difference. Has Fox managed to convince audiences that this is a family film? The marketing has not implicitly offered a family appeal message, preferring to let the volume of the marketing and the elements of the film itself to attract the audience. It’s a tough call whether mom and dad are convinced that The Simpsons is a movie they want to take the kids to.

If they are convinced then an opening weekend monster around $50 million. If not, the fan cult should still push the film to a strong $30+ million dollar opening. The film has the advantage of no other family appeal flicks opening this weekend and the returning competition, Harry Potter, Transformers and Ratatouille are weeks into their runs, (aside from Hairspray which, with a strong hold through the week, and great buzz could provide some competition.)

So what of the weekend competition for The Simpsons? Not one is likely delve beyond niche numbers. The highest profile new release aside from The Simpsons is the romance No Reservations starring Catherine Zeta Jones, Aaron Eckhardt and Oscar nominee Abigail Breslin. The film went out on several hundred screens last Saturday to little notice opposite the twin big releases Hairspray and I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry.

Zeta Jones hasn’t been on screen in nearly three years (The Legend of Zorro) and thus far in her career cannot claim an opening weekend success on her name alone. The same can be said of co-star Aaron Eckhardt who has audience goodwill as a character actor but is not yet a topline star. The biggest draw of the film could be Breslin who was beloved for her role in Little Miss Sunshine.

Unfortunately, it’s too much to ask a pre-teen girl to open a picture and no matter how much audience may have loved her Oscar nominated performance, the competition is way over the head of this picture which might have been better served with an August or September opening. As it is, the film will rely on older women to turn out, not a bad bet considering the lack of niche competition but this same niche audience just recently rejected Evening. No Reservation has given this audience no more reason than Evening did to turn out.

The controversial opening of the weekend is the new Lindsey Lohan film I Know Who Killed Me. The film famous for Ms. Lohan having taken pole dancing lessons for, she plays a stripper, is now entirely overshadowed and forgotten in the wake of the stars most recent meltdown. Lohan’s mugshot has been the films highest profile promotion and that for some reason hasn’t pushed interest in her new movie as much as it has increased traffic at the gossip website TMZ.com.

TMZ and other such outlets are likely to make more money this week than what I Know Who Killed me will in its opening weekend. With its R-rating, lack of niche appeal and Lohan’s complete and total overshadowing of the film with her personal problems, the only reliable audience for I Know Who Killed Me are perverts awaiting Lohan’s stripping scenes. Of course a good Internet connection and a Google search could likely satisfy that audience. My guess, an opening under $5 million.

Who’s Your Caddy? Who are you kidding? No one has heard of this film. Cynically it is being tossed out to appeal solely to African Americans starving for a movie with black lead actors or a predominately African-American audience. That niche likely won’t push the film past an opening weekend of maybe 5 million, more likely 3 or 4 million.

On the slow rollout front, Danny Boyle is stoking good buzz for his sci fi offering Sunshine. The film, starring Cillian Murphy has played strongly in major markets and moves this weekend to around 500 screens. The film’s national profile is quite low, but a strong internet campaign appealing to cinéastes and film lovers could help the film to a respectable opening for a film opening on fewer than 1,000 screens.

Also continuing a slow rollout with a similar niche appeal to Sunshine is Werner Herzog’s Vietnam movie Rescue Dawn. This is a film with strong critical support, a rising star in Christian Bale and an appeal to older males who live for a heroic military story.
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THE WRAP: CHUCK AND LARRY MORE POWERFUL THAN VOLDEMORT; DROP HARRY POTTER

I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry proved a more powerful foe for Harry Potter than Voldemort was after the Sandler-James flick took home an estimated $34.775 million in its first three days of release, knocking last week’s top film, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix to the No. 2 spot after the latter saw its ticket sales fall 58.3% from its first weekend of release to its second.

Chuck and Larry, which grossed as much as most observers expected it to, also posted the best per screen average of any wide release: $9,949. Meanwhile, Potter grossed $32.185 million for a 10-day total of $207.541 million. The film might have been hurt slightly by the fact that the final book in the Potter series, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows hit bookstores at midnight Saturday, and those fans who might have seen Potter a second time this weekend instead had their attentions diverted by the 700+ page tome, which sold 8.3 million copies in the United States in its first two das on store shelves.

The weekend’s other new wide release, Hairspray, performed very well, taking in $27.8 million this weekend for a strong $8,907 per screen average. The film opened above expectations of a low-20s opening and held the No. 3 spot on this weekend’s box office chart.

Transformers continues to perform well in its third weekend of release, grossing $20.506 million for an impressive $262.969 million total after 17 days of release. The week’s No. 4 film will likely near (and possibly cross) the $300 million mark by the end of next weekend, and expect the official announcement of Transformers 2 soon.

Rounding out the top five is Ratatouille, which took in $11 million this weekend for a four-week total of $165.628 million.

In limited release, director Danny Boyle’s Sunshine took in $235,000 despite unreeling on only 10 screens, for a chart-leading $23,500 per screen average. The poorly-reviewed Goya’s Ghosts grossed $167,000 on 49 screens for a weak average of $3,408 per screen.

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TICKETS OUT: CHUCK AND LARRY AND A FULL CAN OF HAIRSPRAY

Not a great weekend for right wing moviegoers. Not only is Michael Moore’s documentary Sicko moving to 1,500 screens nationwide, but that other enemy of the right wing, homosexuals, are getting not one but two high-profile, positive examples of gay cinema.

Now, I realize that when I say Hairspray is gay cinema, some of you recoil at my seeming employment of a stereotype but hear me out. Hairspray is an example of positive gay cinema because director Adam Shankman and producer John Waters (auteur of the original Hairspray) are both gay. Thus the success of Hairspray this weekend is a positive example of gay cinema. A gay director behind the lens of a big summer success is definitely a positive.

So how will Hairspray perform at the box office? The film is trending older and more female friendly than most of the competition. This is the perfect niche at the moment, demographically speaking. With Potter for the kids, Adam Sandler and Transformers for the boys, Hairspray has the femme demo almost all to itself.

If Hairspray can manage to wrestle even a small portion of the date crowd away from Chuck and Larry this could be the surprise opening of the summer.

As for I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry reviews are not great early on but most reviews do mention the film as being a positive for gay audiences. The movie, allegedly delivers a message of tolerance, love and acceptance behind its crude slapstick and could provide a real positive message to Sandler’s jock-ish fanbase. That is, if that fanbase will turn out to see Sandler play gay, even if he’s only faking it.

Playing up a nearly nude Jessica Biel in the ad campaign should help turn out the Sandler fans. The key then will be luring the date crowd and Chuck and Larry has a slight edge over Hairspray in that regard as guys just generally refuse to turn out for a musicals. Neither, Transformers or Harry Potter can be considered as date movies, so the date crowd is open for Chuck and Larry.

This time last year, Sandler opened Click to more than $40 million. That film had the advantage of a slightly less competitive weekend and a premise with wider appeal than the slightly more controversial Chuck and Larry. Does that mean that Chuck and Larry can’t open big? Of course not, but be prepared for an opening in the low to mid-30s and a second place finish behind week two of Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix.

Also this weekend, Warner Brothers is rolling out a sneak preview of the romantic comedy No Reservations starring Catherine Zeta Jones and Aaron Eckhardt. The film opens next week and based on weak early ad buys and one of the weakest trailers of the year, this could be a make or break for the films opening next weekend. How many people will sample No Reservations this weekend? The film has to pull audience from Hairspray and that could be tough going.

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THE WRAP: TRANSFORMERS BLOWS AWAY COMPETITION

Transformers lit up the box office in its first six-and-a-half days of release and blew away the competition after taking in $67.6 million this weekend and $152.5 million since it hit North American theatre screens Monday night. The film took in an average of $16,853 per screen -- the best of any wide release this weekend and earned back its $150 million production budget in less than a week.

The film has performed extremely well with young audiences and Latino and African-American audiences, and has an outside shot at cracking the $300 million mark domestically. (And yes, Paramount and Dreamworks are probably green-lighting the sequel if they haven’t already.)

Ratatouille has performed very well in its first 10 days of release. This weekend’s No. 2 film took in $29.029 million from Friday through Sunday and its 10-day cume is $109.546 million.

Also performing well is Live Free or Die Hard which took in $17.4 million in its second weekend of release for a 10-day total of $84.16 million.

License to Wed debuted at No. 4 this week, taking in $10.4 million from Friday to Sunday. The film, which opened Wednesday, has taken in $17.816 million in its first five days of release -- a decent number when one considers how badly the film was butchered by reviewers.

Rounding out the top five is mega-flop Evan Almighty which took in $8.114 million this weekend and which has grossed $78.101 million in its first three weeks of release. The film is unlikely to break $100 million domestically and won’t come close to earning back its reported $175 million production budget.

In limited release, the well-reviewed Rescue Dawn took in $104,000 on 6 screens for a chart-leading average of $17,333 per screen. The film has taken in $162,000 since it hit theatre screens Wednesday.

Another limited release, Joshua, took in $51,100 in its first three days of release. The film, which opened on six screens, took in an impressive $8,516 per movie house.

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TICKETS OUT: MORE THAN MEETS THE EYE EDITION

Another week, another early edition of Tickets Out. This time, we start the holiday week on a Monday with the premiere of Transformers, which is not only the film that is being predicted at guessthegross.com but also the first film to hit screens during this busy holiday week.

Director Michael Bay is nothing if not consistent, and his trademark extreme battle sequences and whiz-bang special effects are in full-effect mode in this film.

As someone who never saw an episode of the show when it aired in the 1980s -- by choice -- I’m not the target audience; however, after having seen the trailers, I admit a slight hankerin’ to see this puppy on the big screen.

I suspect that I’m not alone in that feeling. At the same time, I suspect that the majority of the audience will be male, which limits the film’s box office gross.

Expect a seven-day gross between $100 and $125 million (and yes, you’ll get my exact prediction prior to the close of the weekly contest.)

Don’t forget to make your guesses before 5:00 p.m. ET Wednesday, July 4 and check back on the blog for Kernan’s full Tickets Out column and the July edition of the summer movie preview.

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THE WRAP: RATS DON'T DIE HARD AT BOX OFFICE

Ratatouille took home the top spot on the North American box office charts this weekend, after capturing $47.227 million in its first three days of release for a chart-leading $11,986 per screen average. Though it took home less than many predicted, film received excellent reviews and will likely have some legs over the coming holiday week.

Live Free or Die Hard placed second over the three-day frame, after grossing $33.15 million from Friday to Sunday. The film, which opened Wednesday, took in a total of $48.178 million over its first five days of release for a strong $9,727 per screen average.

Evan Almighty swooned in its second weekend of release after taking in $15.089 million for a 10-day total of $60.625 million. The film is unlikely to recoup its $175 million budget during the course of its North American theatrical run.

Following at No. 4 is 1408, which dropped from No. 2 after taking in $10.61 million for a 10-day total of $40.389 million. The relatively low-budget film ($25 million), has taken in $40.389 million in its first 10 days of release, giving MGM and the Weinstein Company a sleeper hit.

Rounding out the top five, Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer took in $9 million for a three-week cume of $114.8 million.

Elsewhere in the top 10, Sicko’s wider release (from one screen in New York City to 441 theatres nationwide) proved fruitful for the film which took in approximately $4.5 million this weekend -- good enough for the ninth spot on the chart -- and performed impressively on a per-screen basis, taking in $10,204 per house.

Evening debuted at No. 10 after selling $3.513 million worth of tickets for a mediocre $3,595 average per screen. Focus Features’ summer counterprogramming experiment appears to have been a mistake.

Two films opened in limited release this weekend: Ghosts of Cite Soleil took in $10,000 in its first five days of release on a single screen and Vitus grossed $5,300 in its first three days of release on a pair of screens.

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TICKETS OUT: AUDIENCES CAN'T WAIT TO TASTE RATATOUILLE

Bruce Willis, rats. and Michael Moore dominate the box office this weekend as four new releases attack the box office this weekend.

Live Free or Die Hard opened to a modest $8 million Wednesday, which puts the opening weekend somewhere in the $45 to $50 million range for the five-day weekend. With Ratatouille and Sicko entering the market on Friday, that number could take a hit but all in all, Live Free or Die Hard is not a complete disappointment.

The movie of the weekend is Ratatouille which is looking like yet another blockbuster for the Disney/Pixar team. The film is tracking at levels just short of the Pirates, Spider-Man, Shrek atmosphere and will likely pull in between $60 and $70 million over the three-day weekend, although it would not be surprising of those estimates ended up being on the low end.

And then there is Michael Moore, whose Sicko looks to open just below the range of his Fahrenheit 9/11 which is the highest-grossing documentary in history. The ad campaign from the Weinstein Company and Lionsgate has been low-watt classy, appealing to the same older, liberal crowds that were Moore’s main constituency before Fahrenheit which succeeded by pulling surprising numbers of younger moviegoers, the 18-24’s.

Sicko does not look to have that same hook for the younger crowds. This being a non-election, the film opening to far less controversy to Fahrenheit did and with a much more complicated and less appealing subject, health care. The film still benefits from the profile Moore established with Fahrenheit, but don’t count on Sicko doing the kind of blockbuster numbers that Fahrenheit did. (Editor’s Note: Sicko is only opening on 441 screens, as opposed to Fahrenheit 9/11, which opened on 868 screens in its first weekend of release.)

Something in the range of 10 to 12 million would be a high end expectation and a clear success for Sicko.

Oh, by the way, there is one more movie opening this weekend. Evening stars Meryl Streep, Toni Collette, and Claire Danes in a blue plate special chick flick for older audiences. Though I find the marketing to be classy and the stars appealing, this film will go down in flames this weekend.

Is there a market of underserved oldsters seeking an inoffensive alternative to the bombast of summer movies? Yes, but Evening is not going to serve them, not without the critical support that is crucial to turning out the older crowd, the last crowd that still listens to us critics.

There was some hope I thought, for Evening. The film has a well pedigreed cast and the look and feel of a Nicholas Sparks-style romance. Had the film opened in September and kept the younger stars, Danes and handsome co-star Patrick Wilson, out front and drawn parallels with the teen friendly romance The Notebook, the film could have possibly reached out to teenage girls.

As it is, with the older crowd being marketed to and reviews not panning out as the producers I’m sure had hoped, the high end for Evening is maybe 7 million for the weekend but don’t be surprised if the number is someplace closer 3.5 or 4 million. Ouch.

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