The Blog at Guess The Gross

THIS WEEK'S CONTEST: STREET KINGS

This week, we'll guess the gross of Street Kings. Good luck!

NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN, THERE WILL BE BLOOD LEAD OSCAR NOMINEES

No Country For Old Men and There Will Be Blood each received eight Academy Award nominations Tuesday (January 22) when the contenders were announced at a pre-dawn press conference in Hollywood, California.

Many will spend the next few weeks overanalyzing the nominees, but it’s not unfair to ask how Norbit gets more nominations than Knocked Up did.

In support of the striking writers I won’t add any additional commentary. Here are the nominees for the 80th annual Academy Awards:

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
George Clooney in Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis in There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp in Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Tommy Lee Jones in In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen in Eastern Promises

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Casey Affleck in The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem in No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman in Charlie Wilson’s Wa
Hal Holbrook in Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson in Michael Clayton

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Cate Blanchett in Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie in Away from Her
Marion Cotillard in La Vie en Rose
Laura Linney in The Savages
Ellen Page in Juno

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Cate Blanchett in I’m Not There
Ruby Dee in American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan in Atonement
Amy Ryan in Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton in Michael Clayton

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM OF THE YEAR

Persepolis
Surf’s Up
Ratatouille

ACHIEVEMENT IN ART DIRECTION
American Gangster
Atonement
The Golden Compass
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
There Will Be Blood

ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
Across the Universe
Atonement
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
La Vie en Rose
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
No End in Sight
Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience
Sicko
Taxi to the Dark Side
War/Dance

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Freeheld
La Corona (The Crown)
Salim Baba
Sari’s Mother

ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
The Bourne Ultimatum
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM OF THE YEAR
Beaufort
The Counterfeiters
Katyn
Mongol
12

ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP
La Vie en Rose
Norbit
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End

ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC WRITTEN FOR MOTION PICTURES (ORIGINAL SCORE)
Atonement
The Kite Runner 
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
3:10 to Yuma

ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC WRITTEN FOR MOTION PICTURES (ORIGINAL SONG)
"Falling Slowly" from Once
"Happy Working Song" from Enchanted
"Raise It Up" from August Rush
"So Close" from Enchanted
"That’s How You Know" from Enchanted

BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
I Met the Walrus 
Madame Tutli-Putli
Même Les Pigeons Vont au Paradis (Even Pigeons Go to Heaven) 
My Love (Moya Lyubov)
Peter & the Wolf

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
At Night
Il Supplente (The Substitute)
Le Mozart des Pickpockets
Tanghi Argentini
The Tonto Woman

ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING
The Bourne Ultimatum
No Country for Old Men
Ratatouille
There Will Be Blood
Transformers

ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING
The Bourne Ultimatum
No Country for Old Men
Ratatouille
3:10 to Yuma
Transformers

ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
The Golden Compass
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
Transformers

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Atonement
Away from Her
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Juno
Lars and the Real Girl
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
The Savages

THE WRAP: NATIONAL TREASURE NO.1 AGAIN

National Treasure: Book of Secrets continued to hold the top spot on the weekend box office charts after taking in $20.225 million this weekend. The action sequel has taken in $171.033 million in its three weeks of release and is almost guaranteed to take in $200 million domestically. Get ready for National Treasure: Guidebook to New York City.

Will Smith’s I Am Legend is also likely to spawn a sequel after rising from No. 3 to No. 2 and taking in $16.3 million in its fourth week of release for a $228.638 million cume.

Juno performed exceptionally, jumping from No. 5 to No. 3 after expanding to 1,925 screens, taking in $16.225 million for a five-week total of $52.032 million.

Another surprising success, Alvin and the Chipmunks, took in another $16 million in its fourth weekend of release and dropped from No.2 to No. 4. The film has grossed $176.738 million during its North American theatrical run. The film, which was budgeted at $60 million, looks likely to crack the $200 million barrier -- a figure that all-but guarantees that there’ll at least one more go-round for this classic franchise.

Rounding out the top five is the weekend’s only new wide release -- One Missed Call -- which captured $13.525 million in its first weekend of release.

While no new film debuted in limited release, There Will Be Blood performed extremely well in limited release. The film expanded from two to 51 screens, but managed to take in an impressive $26,215 per screen, the best of any film playing this weekend. Other notable limited releases include The Bucket List, which took in an average of $19,687 on 13 screens, and Persepolis, which captured $11,428 per screen on seven screens.

Technorati Tags: Business, Film, News, The Wrap

GUESS THE GROSS VERSION 2.0

Last night, I announced, in this space, that after some deliberation, I decided that the best way to honor the loyal readers who have made Guess The Gross a vibrant community, was to improve the site and grow it. I also promised to detail some of our plans for the coming year. While I won't get into specifics on some of the ideas listed below, you will like the direction in which Guess The Gross is moving.

1. First, while the weekly contest will continue -- for the time being -- to be hosted at Guess the Gross, everything else site-related will take place on the blog. Previews, features, news, the weekly contest announcement, etc., will all originate here. I am in the process of teaching myself how to use a new content management system that will strengthen the site and allow for more robust contesting and I suspect that when I'm up and running on the system that you'll see more significant design and feature changes.
2. In regards to the weekly contest, while it will remain free, I will likely offer some sort of low-cost membership plan that will entitle the purchasers to -- among other things -- additional entries into the weekly contest.
3. We will be introducing more contests and more features, columns, and reviews on to the site, thereby giving you a reason to come back each day. In addition, all reviews, features, etc. currently located at Guess the Gross will be ported over to this blog.
4. The Guess the Gross store will open online later this year. (Because I know that many of you have been clamoring for GTG gear.
5. Starting in the second quarter of the year (after the Oscars and before the summer), we're going to hold a quarterly t-shirt design contest where you will have the opportunity to design a shirt and the winner's shirt will be sold at the GTG store with the winner receiving a  50% cut of the net profits.
6. Guess the Gross will soon be holding a membership drive where the top referrers will win some cool prizes.
7. I'm also working with some promotional firms to run some exciting contests.
8. Finally, there will be a greater focus on soundtrack and DVD releases.

There are several other things in the works that I know will make this a better site. If you're interested in joining our editorial or production team (or if you're really good with Drupal), send me an email. While we can't afford to provide you with any monetary compensation at this time -- and no, I'm not making a penny on the site either -- as soon as the site does start generating money, you'll be compensated. In addition, you'll get first crack at any swag the site gets. (Plus, if you review DVDs, you generally get to keep them.)

Once again, it's bedtime. I hope that everyone had a safe and healthy holiday and that you will join me to make Guess the Gross the best movie site on the planet in 2008.

Happy New Year to all.

It's showtime.

--roy

STATE OF THE GUESS THE GROSS UNION

The past year has been a difficult one for Guess the Gross. We have had some technical difficulties as well as problems with our contests. I know that some of our friends no longer check the site as regularly as they once did, and that saddens me. At the same time, I realize that building a great community is something that requires a great deal of attention and, at times, due to real-life intrusions on our little world, I have not always been able to nourish this site to the extent that I would have wished.

I've spent the past few weeks pondering the future of Guess the Gross because the site felt more like a chore over the past year than it did an enjoyable pastime. I considered putting the site to pasture. We have had a good run here, nearly a decade, dating back to the days when we were known as Bikkit.com and founded and led by editor-in-chief emeritus Keeley and I began to wonder if I was doing both him and our regular readers and contributors a disservice by attempting to keep alive a flame that has burned brightly in the past.

After much deliberation, I decided that the best way to honor this site's legacy was not only to continue with it, but also to improve upon our foundation. Since it is already very early in the morning as I type this -- and I suspect that Santa passed overhead several hours ago, which means, no presents for me -- I will post again in the next 24 hours a detailed look at Guess the Gross' plans for 2008.

I am hopeful that the coming year will be one to remember. With your support (which will be rewarded), Guess the Gross is going to rise again, and end up stronger than ever.

THE WRAP: HOMER AND THE GANG MAKE LOTS OF D'OH

The Simpsons Movie exceeded the expectations of both Fox and box office gurus this weekend after taking in $71.85 million in its first three days of North American release. The film, which cost a relatively inexpensive $75 million to make took in $167 million worldwide this weekend, and turned a profit in three days. The film took in $18,319 per screen, the best of any film show on North American screens this weekend.

Last week’s top film, I Now Pronounce You Chck and Larry, grossed $19.063 million in its second weekend of release, for a 10-day total of $71.61 million.

Following at No. 3 is Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, which captured $17.065 million in sales this weekend and has taken in $241.771 million in its three weeks of release.

Hairspray dropped from No. 3 to No. 4 this week, taking in $15.55 million for a strong 10-day cume of $59.307 million.

Rounding out the top five is No Reservations which debuted with an $11.755 million opening weekend. The film grossed an average of $4,847 per screen.

Two other new releases debuted in the top 10: The Lindsay Lohan thriller I Know Who Killed Me took in $3.4 million this weekend, for a flop-tastic $2,575 per screen average. The film, which opened at No. 9, was hurt tremendously by Lohan’s inability to promote it due to her off-screen exploits and will end up on video by early fall.

Joining it on video store shelves will be Who’s Your Caddy, which opened at No. 10 on sales of $2.9 million over its first three days of release. The African-American Caddyshack rip-off grossed $2,845 per screen.

Three films opened in limited release: Moliere took in $32,900 on six screens for a $5,483 per screen average; No End In Sight grossed $32,000 on two screens for a strong $16,000 per screen average; and Arctic Tale took in $20,600 on four screens -- a $5,150 average per screen.

Technorati Tags: Business, News, The Wrap, Weekly Contest

TICKETS OUT: SIMPSONS HOPE TO TAKE HOME THE D'OH

The weekend is all about Homer, Marge, Bart, Lisa, and Maggie as they culminate a 20 year journey from the small screen to the big screen. So how does the Simpsons’ change in screen size compare with similar properties? Tracking on the Simpsons places it well beyond the strong if not spectacular showings of its cable cousins, 1998’s Beavis and Butthead Do America and 1999’s South Park: Bigger Longer and Uncut.

Both of those films came in under the $100 million dollar domestic mark despite loyal cult audiences. The Simpsons, having the advantage of being a network show, rather than a cable show, has a slightly larger following than either Beavis or South Park. The bigger differences however could be ratings. Homer and company, despite a cameo by Bart’s little Bart, has the somewhat family friendly PG-13 rating.

South Park went out with a hard R rating and managed an $11 million dollar opening and a total run of $52 million. Beavis and Butthead on the other hand did have the PG-13 which helped the film to a $20+ million dollar opening which lead to a $63 million dollar domestic run. The Simpsons hold another advantage over Beavis and Butthead however with its appeal to family audiences.

That will be the big difference. Has Fox managed to convince audiences that this is a family film? The marketing has not implicitly offered a family appeal message, preferring to let the volume of the marketing and the elements of the film itself to attract the audience. It’s a tough call whether mom and dad are convinced that The Simpsons is a movie they want to take the kids to.

If they are convinced then an opening weekend monster around $50 million. If not, the fan cult should still push the film to a strong $30+ million dollar opening. The film has the advantage of no other family appeal flicks opening this weekend and the returning competition, Harry Potter, Transformers and Ratatouille are weeks into their runs, (aside from Hairspray which, with a strong hold through the week, and great buzz could provide some competition.)

So what of the weekend competition for The Simpsons? Not one is likely delve beyond niche numbers. The highest profile new release aside from The Simpsons is the romance No Reservations starring Catherine Zeta Jones, Aaron Eckhardt and Oscar nominee Abigail Breslin. The film went out on several hundred screens last Saturday to little notice opposite the twin big releases Hairspray and I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry.

Zeta Jones hasn’t been on screen in nearly three years (The Legend of Zorro) and thus far in her career cannot claim an opening weekend success on her name alone. The same can be said of co-star Aaron Eckhardt who has audience goodwill as a character actor but is not yet a topline star. The biggest draw of the film could be Breslin who was beloved for her role in Little Miss Sunshine.

Unfortunately, it’s too much to ask a pre-teen girl to open a picture and no matter how much audience may have loved her Oscar nominated performance, the competition is way over the head of this picture which might have been better served with an August or September opening. As it is, the film will rely on older women to turn out, not a bad bet considering the lack of niche competition but this same niche audience just recently rejected Evening. No Reservation has given this audience no more reason than Evening did to turn out.

The controversial opening of the weekend is the new Lindsey Lohan film I Know Who Killed Me. The film famous for Ms. Lohan having taken pole dancing lessons for, she plays a stripper, is now entirely overshadowed and forgotten in the wake of the stars most recent meltdown. Lohan’s mugshot has been the films highest profile promotion and that for some reason hasn’t pushed interest in her new movie as much as it has increased traffic at the gossip website TMZ.com.

TMZ and other such outlets are likely to make more money this week than what I Know Who Killed me will in its opening weekend. With its R-rating, lack of niche appeal and Lohan’s complete and total overshadowing of the film with her personal problems, the only reliable audience for I Know Who Killed Me are perverts awaiting Lohan’s stripping scenes. Of course a good Internet connection and a Google search could likely satisfy that audience. My guess, an opening under $5 million.

Who’s Your Caddy? Who are you kidding? No one has heard of this film. Cynically it is being tossed out to appeal solely to African Americans starving for a movie with black lead actors or a predominately African-American audience. That niche likely won’t push the film past an opening weekend of maybe 5 million, more likely 3 or 4 million.

On the slow rollout front, Danny Boyle is stoking good buzz for his sci fi offering Sunshine. The film, starring Cillian Murphy has played strongly in major markets and moves this weekend to around 500 screens. The film’s national profile is quite low, but a strong internet campaign appealing to cinéastes and film lovers could help the film to a respectable opening for a film opening on fewer than 1,000 screens.

Also continuing a slow rollout with a similar niche appeal to Sunshine is Werner Herzog’s Vietnam movie Rescue Dawn. This is a film with strong critical support, a rising star in Christian Bale and an appeal to older males who live for a heroic military story.
Technorati Tags: Business, News, Tickets Out, Weekly Contest

THE WRAP: CHUCK AND LARRY MORE POWERFUL THAN VOLDEMORT; DROP HARRY POTTER

I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry proved a more powerful foe for Harry Potter than Voldemort was after the Sandler-James flick took home an estimated $34.775 million in its first three days of release, knocking last week’s top film, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix to the No. 2 spot after the latter saw its ticket sales fall 58.3% from its first weekend of release to its second.

Chuck and Larry, which grossed as much as most observers expected it to, also posted the best per screen average of any wide release: $9,949. Meanwhile, Potter grossed $32.185 million for a 10-day total of $207.541 million. The film might have been hurt slightly by the fact that the final book in the Potter series, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows hit bookstores at midnight Saturday, and those fans who might have seen Potter a second time this weekend instead had their attentions diverted by the 700+ page tome, which sold 8.3 million copies in the United States in its first two das on store shelves.

The weekend’s other new wide release, Hairspray, performed very well, taking in $27.8 million this weekend for a strong $8,907 per screen average. The film opened above expectations of a low-20s opening and held the No. 3 spot on this weekend’s box office chart.

Transformers continues to perform well in its third weekend of release, grossing $20.506 million for an impressive $262.969 million total after 17 days of release. The week’s No. 4 film will likely near (and possibly cross) the $300 million mark by the end of next weekend, and expect the official announcement of Transformers 2 soon.

Rounding out the top five is Ratatouille, which took in $11 million this weekend for a four-week total of $165.628 million.

In limited release, director Danny Boyle’s Sunshine took in $235,000 despite unreeling on only 10 screens, for a chart-leading $23,500 per screen average. The poorly-reviewed Goya’s Ghosts grossed $167,000 on 49 screens for a weak average of $3,408 per screen.

Technorati Tags: Business, News, The Wrap, Weekly Contest

THE WRAP: HARRY POTTER STILL MAGIC THE FIFTH TIME AROUND

Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, the fifth film in the seven-movie series, opened to a $77.41 million gross over the three day weekend, and a more impressive $140.017 million over its first five days of release.

Potter broke the slump faced by most of this summer’s sequels, exploding onto screens with a $18,065 per screen average, the best of any film in theatres this weekend. Worldwide, the film took in approximately $330 million in its first five days of global release.

Last week’s top film, Transformers, took in $36 million in its second week of release, and landed in second place, for a 10-day cume of $222.99 million.

Ratatouille landed at No. 3 after taking in $18.019 million in its third week of release, for a total North American take of $143.004 million.

Live Free or Die Hard broke the $100 million mark, and placed No. 4 this week after selling $10.875 million of tickets over the three-day weekend. The fourth film in the series has taken in $102.918 million in its first three weeks of release.

Rounding out the top five is License to Wed, which grossed $7.44 million this weekend, for a 10-day gross of $30.508 million.

The only other wide release this weekend, Captivity, debuted at No. 12 after taking in an abysmal $1.55 million this weekend. The horror-porn flick that Kernan decried in a recent column, is likely to leave theatres quickly.

In limited release, the well-reviewed Focus release Talk to Me took in $391,000 on 33 screens for an impressive $11,848 per screen average. My Best Friend took in $46,500 on three screens for a terrific $15,500 per screen average. Rounding out the new limited releases was Interview, which grossed $41,600 on six screens for a $6,933 per screen average.

Technorati Tags: Film, News, The Wrap, Weekly Contest

TICKETS OUT: MORE THAN MEETS THE EYE EDITION

Another week, another early edition of Tickets Out. This time, we start the holiday week on a Monday with the premiere of Transformers, which is not only the film that is being predicted at guessthegross.com but also the first film to hit screens during this busy holiday week.

Director Michael Bay is nothing if not consistent, and his trademark extreme battle sequences and whiz-bang special effects are in full-effect mode in this film.

As someone who never saw an episode of the show when it aired in the 1980s -- by choice -- I’m not the target audience; however, after having seen the trailers, I admit a slight hankerin’ to see this puppy on the big screen.

I suspect that I’m not alone in that feeling. At the same time, I suspect that the majority of the audience will be male, which limits the film’s box office gross.

Expect a seven-day gross between $100 and $125 million (and yes, you’ll get my exact prediction prior to the close of the weekly contest.)

Don’t forget to make your guesses before 5:00 p.m. ET Wednesday, July 4 and check back on the blog for Kernan’s full Tickets Out column and the July edition of the summer movie preview.

Technorati Tags: Business, Film, News, Previews, Tickets Out, Weekly Contest