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SUMMER MOVIE PREVIEW: AUGUST

The Bourne Ultimatum: Hot franchise + hot star + Exceptional trailer - R-rating? + Paul Greengrass directs - Last sequel + Excellent early reviews = An early August blockbuster and a rare franchise that has gained box office momentum each time out. The Bourne Supremacy opened to more than $50 million in 2004. The Bourne Ultimatum is generating buzz for a possible $70+ million dollar opening and a strong shot at $200+ million overall if they can continue to stoke the current buzz with strong word of mouth.
Bratz: Fem-teen appeal - Niche audience + Popular toy tie ins - No stars - No parents appeal + Low budget = Teen girls is a good niche but if you can’t get mom and dad to join them, the money is not there beyond the opening weekend. The bright side, no stars, no back end deals, and a low budget could help the film turn a small profit.

El Cantante: Bad buzz - Small theatrical rollout + Good niche - Small niche - Little known subject + Strong ad support + Passion project - Declining star - Over a year on the shelf = Jennifer Lopez and Marc Anthony have been very passionate about making this bio of singer Hector Lavoe. Unfortunately the project, among other things, has kept Lopez out of the public eye. Her declining star power and growing diva reputation have put a dent in her once promising box office draw. El Cantante will rely on its ethnic niche to sustain the picture in a slow roll out, only 500 screens in its opening weekend with no promise of expansion unless the film performs above expectations opening weekend.

Hot Rod: Dumb Comedy is hot + Rising star + PG-13 rating - Opening opposite Bourne - Opening against The Simpsons week 2 + Strong teen appeal = Hot Rod has not stoked the buzz of its early trailers as well as marketers had hoped but the teen appeal seems to be there but opening weekend competition and the upcoming, similarly targeted Superbad put Hot Rod’s long term box office in question.

Underdog: Baby boomer favorite - Baby boomer favorite - No stars - No animation + Disney movie - Weak ad support - Bad trailer = Underdog is a tough read. Parents remember the cartoon but was anyone clamoring for a live action remake? Animal movies are pretty hit and miss, with fewer hits than misses, anyone remember Firehouse Dog? With Disney behind it; Underdog shouldn’t be in as bad a shape as it’s in. For some reason, Disney doesn’t seem to be putting on the full court press. With the family audience divided between Hairspray, Simpsons, Bratz, and mom and dad desperate to see Bourne, this was a pretty rough weekend to launch Underdog. Don’t expect a big performer.

Daddy Day Camp: Cuba Gooding Jr. - No name co-star - No Eddie Murphy - Not even Jeff Garlin? - Wednesday opening? = Who is Sony kidding with this reject? Without Eddie Murphy this is a direct to video franchise. Cuba Gooding Jr.’s career has been over for a while now, his Oscar glory long faded. With a bizarre decision to open this buzz free pseudo sequel, it is quite clear Sony is cleaning the shelves.

Rush Hour 3: Popular franchise + The return of Chris Tucker - Jackie Chan is getting old + Brett Ratner - Brett Ratner + High awareness + PG-13 rating = Rush Hour 3 is tracking big and star Chris Tucker seems to have lost nothing of his box office appeal in his six years away from the screen. It helps that he is returning to a popular franchise with a loyal fan following. It also helps that Tucker remains one of the most affable and scandal free actors in the business. Rush Hour 3 will no doubt put Tucker back in the top tier of Hollywood earners.

Skinwalkers: Horror doesn’t play in the heat of summer - Zero star power - No buzz - Bad trailer = When did August become a dumping ground? Usually, movies like Skinwalkers are dusted off in September or even held till January or February where they quietly pass thru theaters. Skinwalkers will take up space for two weeks before disappearing to video.

Stardust: Neil Gaiman + All star cast - Cast mostly past its prime + Hot young director + Good trailer + Strong geek support = Neil Gaiman has a very loyal cult but do they trust Matthew Vaughn to interpret Gaiman? That may be the difference between an opening under $10 million and something in the mid to low teens. DeNiro is a good draw for older audiences while Michelle Pfeiffer began her career second act with strong work in Hairspray. The problem for Stardust is the same problem that Underdog has in the previous week: a crowded marketplace. There may simply be too many movies out there for a little-known but seemingly worthy effort like Stardust.

Becoming Jane: Anne Hathaway + Jane Austen + Older fem appeal + Critical support - low profile + Slow rollout to build buzz + Award contender? = A bio of Jane Austen is the latest spin on the Pride and Prejudice legend. This popular romantic fantasy still has legs and in a limited release with some award possibilities, there is a market. The key for the studio however is the international appeal. The most recent Pride and Prejudice adaptation made nearly $100 million in foreign dollars.

The Invasion: James Bond (Daniel Craig) + Nicole Kidman + Sci fi cult - Average trailer - Troubled production - Fired director - remake = A disaster in the making. This remake of Invasion of the Body Snatchers has faced a number of production delays, reshoots, and even a fired director. Oliver Hirschbiegel, the German director of Das Experiment, was fired after his more cerebral take on the material came up short of the action that Warner Bros. Wanted. Enter director James McTeigue whose V For Vendetta was a hit for Warner Bros. last year. McTeigue brought the stars back and added some big action set pieces. And the early reviews say? It’s an absolute mess. With Nicole Kidman’s box office star on the wane and few people interested in Daniel Craig outside of his Bond work, the box office hurdles are likely too high for The Invasion.

The Last Legion: Sir Ben Kingsley + Colin Firth - No big money draw - Long shelf life - Period piece + Aishwarya Rai = The strange August releases continue with this dusty period piece. The Last Legion has been on the shelf at MGM for 2 years. They are launching this one in mid-August hoping to appeal to older male audiences. Unfortunately, as films like The Great Raid can attest, that is a very fickle and unreliable demographic. On the bright side, domestic numbers on The Last Legion are negligible. The film has a good deal of international appeal with Sir Ben Kingsley and Colin Firth popular in Europe and the gorgeous Aishwarya Rai a big star in India and Southeast Asia. A total domestic run under $10 million dollars will be a little embarrassing but the foreign numbers should make The Last Legion modestly profitable.

Superbad: Seth Rogan + Producer Judd Apatow + McLovin + Red Band Trailer - R rating - Bad tracking = Though critics have been kind and the ad campaign has been terrific, there is reason to worry for the producers of Superbad. The early tracking is slow and awareness is not nearly as high as I’m sure they would hope. By this time in the release of Knocked Up, the film Superbad is patterned after, that film was already looking like a hit. Superbad is tracking much closer to a similar teen appeal R-rated comedy, 2004’s Harold and Kumar Go To White Castle. That film had a lot of positive buzz early and then opened to only $5 million dollars and a total of $18 million for its entire domestic run. Those numbers would be a disappointment for Superbad.

Illegal Tender: Low budget + Studio support + Producer John Singleton - No stars + Good niche = Who’s Rick Gonzalez? You have seen him in a number of bit parts, most prominently in Old School but you would never call him a star. Singleton is a draw, his name helped sell Hustle and Flow to a large niche. The low budget is good news and if the film is well reviewed that could help pull some audience but don’t expect Illegal Tender to break out.

Mr. Bean’s Holiday: International sensation + Loyal following = Anything Mr. Bean’s Holiday makes in America is mere icing on the cake. The film has made more than $100 million worldwide already, so Universal and Studio Canal are not sweating this release at all.

September Dawn: What?- Who? - Why? = Though it’s listed as a wide release right now, it’s hard to believe that this period drama romance will actually open beyond mid-major markets. The fight for screen space is nasty this month and with blockbusters hanging on longer and longer, there simply isn’t enough room for a film without a bigger star or better hook than September Dawn.

War: Jet Li + Jason Statham + Hardcore action Violence = A late summer surprise that may not put up blockbuster numbers but will put up the same solid numbers that made The Transporter series a money maker. With a mid-level budget, and a good opening date, War is looking like a definite cash machine.

Balls Of Fury: Christopher Walken + Ping Pong - Lennon and Garant script - Unknown star + Strong ad support = A complete unknown, Balls of Fury stars Dan Fogler (?) as a ping pong champion and Christopher Walken as a Japanese ping pong impresario. That last part sounds funny in theory but with Thomas Lennon and Ben Garant (Reno 911, The Pacifier, Taxi) behind the scenes, Balls of Fury is likely to be a tediously unfunny mess, if their track record holds up.

Death Sentence: From the creators of Saw - Kevin Bacon-box office? - Dead Silence box office = A move from the horror genre to hardcore action is an interesting move for the creators of Saw. However, as March’s Dead Silence demonstrated, James Wan and Leigh Whannell are not box office draws when working without their Jigsaw. The film will need a strong ad push to compete with Jet Li and Jason Statham in War.

Halloween: Rob Zombie + Legendary franchise - The decline of horror porn - Halloween in August? + Surprising buzz = I am shocked at the number of people who have asked me about this film. However, most are members of the horror cult and the film is very unlikely to get outside that cult. History seems to be on Rob Zombie’s side; Michael Bay’s Texas Chainsaw Massacre remake opened to $28 million dollars on its way to a gross over $80 million.

TICKETS OUT: CHUCK AND LARRY AND A FULL CAN OF HAIRSPRAY

Not a great weekend for right wing moviegoers. Not only is Michael Moore’s documentary Sicko moving to 1,500 screens nationwide, but that other enemy of the right wing, homosexuals, are getting not one but two high-profile, positive examples of gay cinema.

Now, I realize that when I say Hairspray is gay cinema, some of you recoil at my seeming employment of a stereotype but hear me out. Hairspray is an example of positive gay cinema because director Adam Shankman and producer John Waters (auteur of the original Hairspray) are both gay. Thus the success of Hairspray this weekend is a positive example of gay cinema. A gay director behind the lens of a big summer success is definitely a positive.

So how will Hairspray perform at the box office? The film is trending older and more female friendly than most of the competition. This is the perfect niche at the moment, demographically speaking. With Potter for the kids, Adam Sandler and Transformers for the boys, Hairspray has the femme demo almost all to itself.

If Hairspray can manage to wrestle even a small portion of the date crowd away from Chuck and Larry this could be the surprise opening of the summer.

As for I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry reviews are not great early on but most reviews do mention the film as being a positive for gay audiences. The movie, allegedly delivers a message of tolerance, love and acceptance behind its crude slapstick and could provide a real positive message to Sandler’s jock-ish fanbase. That is, if that fanbase will turn out to see Sandler play gay, even if he’s only faking it.

Playing up a nearly nude Jessica Biel in the ad campaign should help turn out the Sandler fans. The key then will be luring the date crowd and Chuck and Larry has a slight edge over Hairspray in that regard as guys just generally refuse to turn out for a musicals. Neither, Transformers or Harry Potter can be considered as date movies, so the date crowd is open for Chuck and Larry.

This time last year, Sandler opened Click to more than $40 million. That film had the advantage of a slightly less competitive weekend and a premise with wider appeal than the slightly more controversial Chuck and Larry. Does that mean that Chuck and Larry can’t open big? Of course not, but be prepared for an opening in the low to mid-30s and a second place finish behind week two of Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix.

Also this weekend, Warner Brothers is rolling out a sneak preview of the romantic comedy No Reservations starring Catherine Zeta Jones and Aaron Eckhardt. The film opens next week and based on weak early ad buys and one of the weakest trailers of the year, this could be a make or break for the films opening next weekend. How many people will sample No Reservations this weekend? The film has to pull audience from Hairspray and that could be tough going.

Technorati Tags: Business, Previews, Tickets Out, Weekly Contest

SUMMER MOVIE PREVIEW: JULY

Transformers: More than meets the eye visually - Less than meets the brain + Spielberg’s push for humanizing the story - Michael Bay’s directorial history + supercool visuals from ILM + limited competition from new releases that week + 80s fans of the series rejoicing - 80s fanboys turned 400 pound Internet addicted freaks unable to get up from their chairs in their parents’ respective basements and make it to the theatre = A huge opening weekend and a shot at $300 million, though the film will likely finish in the $265 million range.

License to Wed: Mandy Moore + almost the entire cast of The Office - mediocre trailers - Robin Williams and his recent track record in comedies - Transformers - July 4th opening when people are at the beach - disastrous reviews - no buzz = The second comedy disaster of the summer (after Evan Almighty) and the sad realization that the actors on The Office are likely better off sticking to television for the time being.

Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix: Built-in audience - running time as long as the title of the film means fewer showings per day + hype from upcoming final novel pushing people to the movies - hype from upcoming final novel creating a sense of apathy - mediocre long lead reviews = Another financial success that won’t derail the series but also won’t make people forget the success of the first few films in the series.

Captivity: We just won’t bother with this one since their ad campaign was so offensive. I suspect most people won’t bother to see this and it will die a quick death.

Talk to Me: Limited release + Don Cheadle in a potential award-winning role - narrow audience appeal + early reviews indicating that narrow minded audiences who skip this film are making a huge mistake = No significant impact at the July box office, but a potential limited re-release in the late fall to remind awards voters about this film.

Hairspray: Remake of a successful film/Broadway musical + relative unknown lead actress in rags to riches story - John Travolta in drag - remember what happened to the Producers remake = A film that will appeal to the female demographic, but which will not cross over like Dreamgirls or Chicago did.

I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry: Adam Sandler, Kevin James, and Jessica Biel + original premise + talented writers - appeal to conservative audiences + sleeper potential = A film that has come on strong of late in terms of audience interest which looks very funny. A definite sleeper hit.

Sunshine: Astronauts going to the sun to restart it - ridiculous premise - no advertising = Forgettable bomb that needs a miracle to save it from ignonimity.

I Know Who Killed Me: Potential sleeper - any goodwill ruined by association with Lindsay Lohan whose presence in the film will overshadow it = What seemed like a good casting idea will now ruin this film’s chances at the box office.

No Reservations: Chick flick - remake of successful foreign film - counterprogramming for summer - ZERO buzz = An opening under $10 million and quick death.

The Simpsons Movie: Film of legendary television show + edginess (PG-13 rating) + enormous fanbase + huge hype + 20 years of anticipation + likelihood that the script will be, at the very least, very good = A huge opening weekend, tons of repeat business. and more than $200 million in North American box office.

Technorati Tags: Film, Previews

TICKETS OUT: MORE THAN MEETS THE EYE EDITION

Another week, another early edition of Tickets Out. This time, we start the holiday week on a Monday with the premiere of Transformers, which is not only the film that is being predicted at guessthegross.com but also the first film to hit screens during this busy holiday week.

Director Michael Bay is nothing if not consistent, and his trademark extreme battle sequences and whiz-bang special effects are in full-effect mode in this film.

As someone who never saw an episode of the show when it aired in the 1980s -- by choice -- I’m not the target audience; however, after having seen the trailers, I admit a slight hankerin’ to see this puppy on the big screen.

I suspect that I’m not alone in that feeling. At the same time, I suspect that the majority of the audience will be male, which limits the film’s box office gross.

Expect a seven-day gross between $100 and $125 million (and yes, you’ll get my exact prediction prior to the close of the weekly contest.)

Don’t forget to make your guesses before 5:00 p.m. ET Wednesday, July 4 and check back on the blog for Kernan’s full Tickets Out column and the July edition of the summer movie preview.

Technorati Tags: Business, Film, News, Previews, Tickets Out, Weekly Contest

TICKETS OUT: AUDIENCES CAN'T WAIT TO TASTE RATATOUILLE

Bruce Willis, rats. and Michael Moore dominate the box office this weekend as four new releases attack the box office this weekend.

Live Free or Die Hard opened to a modest $8 million Wednesday, which puts the opening weekend somewhere in the $45 to $50 million range for the five-day weekend. With Ratatouille and Sicko entering the market on Friday, that number could take a hit but all in all, Live Free or Die Hard is not a complete disappointment.

The movie of the weekend is Ratatouille which is looking like yet another blockbuster for the Disney/Pixar team. The film is tracking at levels just short of the Pirates, Spider-Man, Shrek atmosphere and will likely pull in between $60 and $70 million over the three-day weekend, although it would not be surprising of those estimates ended up being on the low end.

And then there is Michael Moore, whose Sicko looks to open just below the range of his Fahrenheit 9/11 which is the highest-grossing documentary in history. The ad campaign from the Weinstein Company and Lionsgate has been low-watt classy, appealing to the same older, liberal crowds that were Moore’s main constituency before Fahrenheit which succeeded by pulling surprising numbers of younger moviegoers, the 18-24’s.

Sicko does not look to have that same hook for the younger crowds. This being a non-election, the film opening to far less controversy to Fahrenheit did and with a much more complicated and less appealing subject, health care. The film still benefits from the profile Moore established with Fahrenheit, but don’t count on Sicko doing the kind of blockbuster numbers that Fahrenheit did. (Editor’s Note: Sicko is only opening on 441 screens, as opposed to Fahrenheit 9/11, which opened on 868 screens in its first weekend of release.)

Something in the range of 10 to 12 million would be a high end expectation and a clear success for Sicko.

Oh, by the way, there is one more movie opening this weekend. Evening stars Meryl Streep, Toni Collette, and Claire Danes in a blue plate special chick flick for older audiences. Though I find the marketing to be classy and the stars appealing, this film will go down in flames this weekend.

Is there a market of underserved oldsters seeking an inoffensive alternative to the bombast of summer movies? Yes, but Evening is not going to serve them, not without the critical support that is crucial to turning out the older crowd, the last crowd that still listens to us critics.

There was some hope I thought, for Evening. The film has a well pedigreed cast and the look and feel of a Nicholas Sparks-style romance. Had the film opened in September and kept the younger stars, Danes and handsome co-star Patrick Wilson, out front and drawn parallels with the teen friendly romance The Notebook, the film could have possibly reached out to teenage girls.

As it is, with the older crowd being marketed to and reviews not panning out as the producers I’m sure had hoped, the high end for Evening is maybe 7 million for the weekend but don’t be surprised if the number is someplace closer 3.5 or 4 million. Ouch.

Technorati Tags: Business, Film, Previews, Tickets Out, Weekly Contest

TICKETS OUT: WILL EVAN SURVIVE FLOOD OF NEW RELEASES?

Evan Almighty presents a number of interesting storylines as it sails into theaters this weekend.

Praise be to the Universal marketing team. They have managed to turn the story of Evan Almighty from the massive budget overruns that have made it the most expensive comedy in history and turned the discussion to the film’s perspective on religion. Given the long lead stories had focused heavily on the film’s ballooning budget, it must be seen as a miracle that in the week leading up to the film’s release none of the major mags or newspapers is talking about the budget.

As for the religious questions, this is not exactly the safest topic but it’s a better, more manageable storyline than the $200+ million dollar budget. The religion of Evan Almighty is looking like both a blessing and a curse. Universal marketers, in an article in the L.A Times this week, are excited about using the films piety and family friendly PG rating to sell the film to the Passion of the Christ crowd.

However, marketers may be fighting the Evan creative team over this religious marketing. In interviews over the weekend and appearances on both Comedy Central and on the USA Network, where he hosted a showing of Bruce Almighty, star Steve Carell attempted to downplay the film’s religious aspects. Meanwhile, director Tom Shadyac acknowledges the film’s religious aspects but prefers to discuss the film’s environmental message.

Suddenly, marketers have a red state-blue state confrontation on their hands.

The biggest religious obstacle in Evan Almighty is the storyline of the film itself. Carell plays Evan Baxter, a secondary character from Bruce Almighty, who goes from news anchor to Congressman and finds himself tapped by God, played once again by Morgan Freeman, to build an ark ala Noah.

God is going to flood the world again and the question the film must answer is why and just how can a comedy sidestep the drowning deaths of millions of sinners. Now, no one expects a mainstream, big budget comedy to kill millions of sinners. There will no doubt be some kind of trapdoor that will save humanity from the flood. But if that is the case, how do you deal with trailers that give away the flood with waters raging toward Washington D.C?

Maybe that curious question alone will be enough to drive some business for Evan Almighty.

Aside from the budget issues and the religious questions, there are still more storylines. Can the film reach the same audience that made Bruce Almighty the top grossing comedy of all time? Can Steve Carell prove himself as a leading man and a box office draw? And can the film overcome some early bad reviews to reach the widest audience available?

At this point, tracking numbers say no. Evan Almighty has strong awareness but its first choice numbers, that is the percentage of people who are aware of the picture who will see it ahead all other films in the market, is stunningly low. The number is so low that Universal is bracing for numbers around $25 million over the opening weekend. For a film that cost more than $200 million dollars to make and market, a $25 million dollar opening could be deathly.

With the specter of Pixar’s highly anticipated Ratatouille just a week away and aimed right at the same audience as Evan, the same mainstream audience, that Passion crowd is a niche, Evan needs to make bank this weekend because next weekend will be big trouble.

One of the films really stealing Evan Almighty’s thunder this weekend is the new Stephen King-based thriller 1408. The John Cusack-Samuel L. Jackson thriller is a buzz monster that has excited potential moviegoers. The film’s awareness is not as high as that of Evan Almighty but first choice numbers and definite interest numbers are surpassing the big budget comedy release.

Of course, 1408 being R-rated means it’s chasing a much different audience than Evan; but I’m sure Universal would prefer not to have such a buzzy flick stealing so much of its weekend spotlight. Both films are chasing one similar audience. Evan has attempted to straddle all quadrants including 18-24 men and women. That audience however is leaning more toward 1408 and that could hurt Evan which is facing a perception problem, is it a kiddie flick or just a funny comedy.

Critics are very much on the side of 1408 with a 100% rating as late as Wednesday night and the likelihood of surpassing Knocked Up as the best reviewed wide release of the year. This will likely help the film pull older audiences, the last group in America who still base their moviegoing on what critics say.

The final new release of the weekend is also chasing that older crowd. Angelina Jolie’s passion project A Mighty Heart is relying on critics to help spread the word of mouth. The film is an indie going out wide and thus without much of a marketing budget. The film has been aided greatly by mainstream media stories on Jolie which focused on the making of the film about murdered Wall Street Journal reporter Daniel Pearl.

Unfortunately, most recent stories on A Mighty Heart have focused on Jolie’s battle with the media, specifically Fox News, over access for interviews. Ms. Jolie had said she would not speak to the conservative news channel. She was forced to apologize and rescind her ban after some journalists pointed out how a particularly vital portion of A Mighty Heart is about the importance of a free press.

With that story dominating recent talk of A Mighty Heart the film has receded to the background. Now the film is not getting the critical support that had been expected, as of Thursday morning it was at 72% positive on Rotten Tomatoes, a good number but marketers had hoped for something stronger. With 1408 getting great critical notice, things are looking bleak for A Mighty Heart.

Technorati Tags: Business, Film, Previews, Tickets Out, Weekly Contest

TICKETS OUT: WILL SILVER SURFER RIDE WAVE TO TOP OF WEEKEND BOX OFFICE?

As we get more distance from the big blockbusters, the second tier blockbusters amp up this weekend as Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer looks to recover from the underwhelming original.

The ad push on Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer has been rather astonishing. It began months ago and has kept up a methodical saturation that has awareness of the film at Spider-Man levels. The cast members, especially Jessica Alba, have been appearing anywhere and everywhere, from American Idol to sports talk radio (Alba was terrific on the Dan Patrick Show recently on ESPN Radio).

The key to this massive marketing push, ironically enough, has been playing down the Fantastic Four aspect of the Fantastic Four. Many will be forgiven for forgetting that this is a Fantastic Four sequel and not a movie designed and engineered solely for the Silver Surfer.

Based on the saturation marketing, and the major hurdle, overcoming the reputation of the first Fantastic Four, the opening weekend numbers should manage to top the opening of the first film in 2005. That film topped 56 million on its opening weekend. Rise of the Silver Surfer is aiming for something in the mid-sixties for a high end gross; while any number under 50 could be seen as disappointing.

FF:Rise of the Silver Surfer is going out with a PG rating, something that has rankled long time fans. Considering that the ad campaign has done little to distinguish itself from Spidey or Pirates (i.e. being younger or more kid friendly), the PG rating really only serves as a detriment to turning out the core Fantastic Four fans who were already disappointed with the original.

As reviews begin to trickle out the word is not encouraging with most calling it an improvement over the original but with many critics also pointing out the fact that they hated the original and don’t consider this enough of an improvement to recommend it. Critcs are unlikely to be much of a factor, movies this big tend to be critic proof.

The other new release of the weekend is a kids movie aimed at the tween-age girl market. Nancy Drew has a terrific young rising star in Emma Roberts, Julia’s niece, Eric’s daughter, and the cache of a beloved book series; one that is recommended in schools across the country.

However, kids lit adaptations are tricky business. For every success like Bridge To Terabithia or Charlotte’s Web there are bombs like How To Eat Fried Worms and Hoot. Right now, because of an atrocious marketing campaign and ugly reviews, Nancy Drew looks like How To Eat Fried Hoot.

Emma Roberts is an appealing, inviting young actress but critics are not sold on her talent yet. You may be thinking that critics don’t matter to tween girls and you’re right but they do matter to mom and dad and if mom and dad don’t want to go, the kids may not go either.

The oddball of the weekend is D.O.A.: Dead Or Alive, a comic book adaptation from director Cory Yuen. The film has already been released and moved to DVD overseas. Back home in America, the movie has been delayed since about this time last year. The Weinstein Company had a lot riding on this picture. However, after the disastrous release in Europe, the Brothers’ enthusiasm has waned.

D.O.A. is now only going out on 500 screens. There have been few trailers and nearly no ad push. Worst of all, star Jamie Pressley is crushing the film in interviews. To call D.O.A. dead on arrival is just such an easy joke that I’m embarrassed to even use it.

And then there is a wild card out there threatening to upend each of the weeks top releases. Box Office Mojo is reporting that Disney will sneak Ratatouille on 800 screens Saturday night. It’s just one show but it still could take a nice bite out of both FF:RSS and strangle Nancy Drew.

Again, it’s just one show on a Saturday evening but I’m sure if you asked Fox execs; and they gave you an honest answer, they would tell you this is not something they want to see happen. Ratatouille will pull heavily from the same pool as Fantastic Four in a primetime slot and could take a significant chunk out of the second day grosses.

Something to watch out for when the numbers come out Sunday morning.
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TICKETS OUT: WILL OCEAN'S SINK OR SWIM?

Three films amble into the market hoping to end the reign of the May trifecta of Spidey, Shrek and Pirates. For more than a month now one of those films has been at the top of the box office. That looks to finally come to an end this weekend. But which of the new releases will take the top spot?

My guess is Ocean’s 13 though I must say, I think the marketing has been somewhat underwhelming. Entering the market with an advantage of a PG-13 rating against last week’s new, younger-skewing hit Knocked Up and the equally younger skewing new release Hostel Part 2, Ocean’s needed to find a marketing hook for a younger audience.

Unfortunately, producers and marketers never seem to have found that hook. The ads and trailers play it safe, stick to the star power at the expense of young appeal. Don’t get me wrong, Brad Pitt and Matt Damon still have some cache in the younger market but Pitt’s audience is aging with him. George Clooney’s box office appeal outside this franchise is suspect to begin with, but what core he has is female and between 24 and 46.

The marketing challenge would have been helped by director Steven Soderbergh finding a hot young leading lady, a Jessica Alba/Jessica Biel type would have been perfect. Instead, Soderbergh goes for Ellen Barkin, a beautiful older woman with zero box office and marketing appeal.

Not getting younger will cost Ocean’s 13 some box office but not so much that it will miss out on the top slot. The older crowd will turn out, especially after they did not turn out for Kevin Costner’s Mr. Brooks last week; they have movie dollars burning a hole in their pocket.

Getting younger for Ocean’s would have meant the difference between a solid opening and a run at $140 million and opening huge with a run toward $175 million. Most studios I suspect would be satisfied at $140.

Eli Roth’s Hostel Part 2 enters the market with a solid base of horror film fans who turn out for anything in this genre and have been underserved thus far this summer. However, the film is going head to head demographically with Knocked Up; which has sensational buzz and looks likely to hold well. Both films are chasing the 18 to 24 males but where Hostel is trapped in that demo, Knocked Up has date appeal and that likely will make a big difference, with the ladies pulling their men to the comedy and romance of Knocked Up over the brutality of Hostel.

The weekend’s other new release has an outside chance of pulling an upset. Surf’s Up, the surfing penguin movie, is aiming for family audiences that have already been to Spidey/Shrek/Pirates and still have some money in their pocket. The key is whether or not mom and dad are burned out or tapped out on big summer blockbusters.
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SUMMER MOVIE PREVIEW: JUNE

Knocked Up: The Director of the 40 Year Old Virgin (Judd Apatow) + Great Buzz + Strong studio support + High powered marketing - No big name stars + No other comedies in the market = A good open, good legs, over $90 million domestic.

Gracie: Sports movie - No stars - No buzz + Good trailer + Low budget + Strong international appeal of soccer = Overall profitability but a quick trip to the scrap heap domestically.

Mr. Brooks: Kevin Costner comeback + Good early buzz + Older demographic appeal - Complicated plot - Serious marketing challenge = A mediocre opening weekend and a long life on DVD.

Hostel 2: Sequel + Cult following - Highly competitive weekend + Only horror in the market = Diminishing returns for a supposed franchiser thanks to a poor choice of opening weekend.

Oceans 13: Clooney + Pitt + Damon + Popular film series + First PG-13 new release in the market in month of June = Bigger than expected returns for the further adventures of Danny Ocean and crew.

Surf’s Up: Penguins + CGI + Happy Feet + March of the Penguins + two weeks after Pirates have sailed = The penguin extends it’s species 15 minutes of fame as a America’s favorite cute animal

Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer: Sequel - Original stunk + Jessica Alba + Silver Surfer - Weak trailers + Strong studio support = Prospects may be improving for this troubled franchise unless the movie stinks as bad as the original.

I Could Never Be Your Woman: Michele Pfeiffer comeback - ZERO Buzz + Director of Clueless (Amy Heckerling) - Director hasn’t had a hit since Clueless - Paul Rudd leading man + Only adult romance in the market - Less than a month till opening and no trailer = Why is this movie being released wide in the Summer? Why is it being released wide at all? This one is dead on arrival.

Nancy Drew - Rising young star (Emma Roberts, Julia’s niece) + Popular book series + Good trailer - Live action family movie = Chance of a break out success but live action family films have struggled against animated films with more obvious kid appeal.

1408 - John Cusack + Samuel L. Jackson + Stephen King + Good buzz - Poor release date - Bad title = Rough going opposite a pair of younger skewing openers and King adaptations haven’t exactly been great at the box office; see Dreamcatcher.

Captivity: High profile controversy + Rising star (Elisha Cuthbert) - Backlash - Hostel 2 - Bad release date = Expect a weak opening thanks to heavy competition and a controvery driven marketing campaign that peaked to soon.

Dead Or Alive: Videogame movie - Awful buzz -Star Jamie Pressley crushing the movie in interviews - No star power - Already DOA Internationally = Dead On Arrival.

Evan Almighty: Massive budget - Bad buzz + Popular star (Steve Carell) + Sequel to the most profitable comedy ever made - No Jim Carrey + Morgan Freeman is back + No opening weekend competition = Should open well but buzz will likely crush it quickly unless director Tom Shadyac has something big up his sleeve that hasn’t been in the lackluster trailers.

September Dawn: What? - Who? - Why? = Box Office Mojo claims this one is opening wide across the country otherwise I would mention it.

You Kill Me: Great buzz + Great trailer - Ben Kingsley, leading man? + Luke Wilson = Like September Dawn, I wouldn’t mention it but for the fact that it may be opening on more than 1,000 screens. With a low budget and a platform release it could be buzzworthy but opening wide it will be chewed up and spat out by the summer blockbusters.

Live Free Or Die Hard: Bruce Willis + John McClain + Amazing Internet Buzz + Wednesday opening = The surprise blockbuster of the summer, if the internet is serious and not merely ironic about their buzz on this one we could be looking at a serious blockbuster of the $200+ million dollar variety.

Ratatouille: Disney + Pixar - Rats - French = Pixar’s first real marketing challenge, a rat against Penguins will lose every time. Will still open well but this one could be the first time Pixar comes in under 100 million.

Sicko: Michael Moore + Controversy - Tough subject (Health care) + George W. Bush + Protestors = Another success for Moore thanks to an unpopular president and angry protestors willing to do all of Moore’s marketing for him with their withering cries.

Technorati Tags: Film, Previews

SUMMER MOVIE PREVIEW: MAY

The summer movie season kicked off with a bang when Spider-Man 3 raked in more than $150 million in its first three days of release and bodes well for the remainder of the summer. With so many films to see, how does one choose which films to see?

It’s all in the math. No, not the grosses (though that plays a part), but rather in the way in which various elements come together to shape the movies you’ll want to see and choose to avoid.

We’ve broken down Guess the Gross’s summer movie preview into four parts, so as not to overwhelm you. Your cruise directors Kernan and Roy will guide you on a journey that will be chock full of adventure, and, if you’re lucky, romance.

MAY

Georgia Rule: High-powered cast - bad publicity - unoriginal presence + women desperate for a chick flick - second weekend of Spider-Man 3 = A weak opening and a quick trip to the shelves at Blockbuster.

28 Weeks Later: Sequel + good reviews + cult status of original film - xenophobic U.S. audiences + zombies + great director = Another impressive, if not spectacular North American box office take and 28 Months Later coming to theatres near you in about… 28 Months.

Delta Farce: Larry the Cable Guy + redneck humor - limited appeal to literate audiences - too early for Iraq war humor - none of the actors in the film are funny + low budget = A film that will tank at the box office, but make enough money through DVD sales to NASCAR audiences to insure years of Larry the Cable Guy films.

Shrek The Third: Big green pedigree - early pan in Variety + audiences who aren’t old enough to read reviews and the parents who take their kids to the movies to shut them up for two hours + summer vacation = More than $300 million in ticket sales and a third sequel where Donkey knocks up a Spice Girl.

Bug: Memorial Day weekend + horror film from Lionsgate - little advertising support + Internet buzz + gore, violence, and nudity - potential competition from a sunny three days and a bunch of Pirates = A low-budget thriller that will make enough money to ensure the sequels Bugs and Bugs 3: The Exterminator Strikes Back.

Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End: Keith Richards + the old gang back together + closing time for the trilogy + have I mentioned PIRATES - 168 minute running time = A $135 million opening weekend and a run at the top spot on the summer box office chart.

Technorati Tags: Film, Previews